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Analysts debate whether recent U.S. military movements near Mexico and Venezuela are mere displays of power or precursors to intervention.
Teh United States has sent a clear message through the mobilization of troops on the border with Mexico and the deployment of warships off the coast of Venezuela. Whether this is simply a strategy to intimidate and demonstrate power,or a prelude to direct intervention,remains to be seen.
Tamara Lajtman, a doctor in Social Sciences from the University of Buenos Aires, notes that American foreign policy regarding drug trafficking in Latin America has been consistent as the 1970s, transcending changes in presidential administrations.
According to Lajtman, the current governance “deepens that securitization narrative, which fuses migration, drug trafficking and terrorism under a unique spectrum of threats to the national security of the United States.”
Aníbal García,a doctor in latin american studies from the Autonomous University of mexico,concurs,stating,”We have the union of the war on drug trafficking with that of terrorism. There is a deepening of a diplomacy of force by the United States, in which it reinforces that narrative of narcoterrorism from different public policies.”
A More Aggressive Stance
García observes a “deepening of relations with Latin America in that regard,” alongside concrete actions. He notes that “Of all the trips of Marco Rubio, head of the State Department, including the two recent ads of visit to Mexico and Ecuador, 37 percent are to Latin America. And the main issues that are in the background are security, fight against drug trafficking and migration, in addition to China.”
Lajtman states that the United States narrative “translates concretely in the militarization of borders, the expansion of detention centers or the designation of cartels such as foreign terrorist organizations. They print a much more aggressive tone to already known strategies.”
“Although a direct intervention would be extremely expensive, the truth is that the deployment of the fleet in the Caribbean is a reality.”
“Pressure Mechanism”
In February 2025, the State Department added the Criminal Band of Venezuelan Origin Train of Aragua, the Salvadoran mara Salvatrucha, and Mexican posters to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO).In early August, the United States doubled the reward for data leading to the capture of Maduro, raising it to $50 million, also linking him to the supposed poster of Los Soles.
A recent report in the New York Times indicated that Trump allegedly sent a decree to the Pentagon authorizing the use of military force abroad against Latin American posters considered narcoterrorist,potentially opening the door to maneuvers in Venezuela,Mexico,and Central America [[1]].
Lajtman suggests that “Although a direct intervention would be extremely expensive,the truth is that the deployment of the fleet in the Caribbean is a reality. The sole threat serves as a pressure mechanism.Most likely it is maintained, combined with financial sanctions and other extraterritorial legal measures.”
according to a researcher at the University of Santiago de Chile, these actions are based on norms conceived in response to terrorism: “Trump uses that legal architecture to reconfigure and legitimize pressures and threats, especially against Venezuela. Without a doubt, the main objective is to promote a regime change, which would not be something new.”
He adds, “The pressures also deepen tensions with Mexico, colombia and Brazil, reinstalling a cold war climate in a region that seeks to discipline within the framework of a global competition with China and Russia.”
Geopolitical Interests
When asked if an intervention is feasible, Aníbal García stated, “Within the continuity of American politics, Trump has gone further.Since the invasion of Panama in 1989, there had been no possibility of having an invasion in Latin American and Caribbean territory for drug trafficking reasons, which is what is latent in the case of Venezuela.”
García believes that behind the increasingly interference policy in the United states lies a geopolitical interest in curbing China’s presence in Latin America and the intention of “getting the great oil reserves that Venezuela has.” He also notes that “In addition to being the great commercial competitor, China appears for the United States in the anti -footh trafficking war, as it points out that fentanyl precursors would come from Asia and in particular of this country.”
Regarding Mexico, García recognizes the pressures from the United States, stating, “we had not had, at least in the last 25 years, an administration as belligerent as the one currently in the United states, even more than was Trump’s first.”
He emphasizes that after the deployment of armed forces to the border and the designation of drug trafficking cartels as terrorists, “it has the possibility of carrying out a war in other countries, but there is no evidence to be able to support that this will happen.”
On a possible armed intervention in Venezuela, he warns: “We want it not to happen, due to the amount of problems that would generate and especially for the loss of human lives. We have seen that after interventions from the United states, great periods of instability in the invaded country come and also reconfigure international relations in the region.”
Anya Romanov is a seasoned political analyst specializing in U.S. foreign policy and Latin American affairs. With a background in international relations and extensive field experience, she provides insightful commentary on geopolitical trends and security issues.
