It has been twelve years since the Italian national football team was last able to take part in a World Cup finals. In 2018 and 2022, the Squadra Azzurra failed in the playoffs. This time too, coach Gennaro Gattuso’s team has to take the detour via the elimination games after only finishing second behind the dominant Norwegians in the World Cup qualification. First there is the semi-final against the Northern Irish in Bergamo, before the winner of the game between Wales and Bosnia would wait in a potential final.
On paper, the tip on the 2006 world champion between Italy and Northern Ireland is significantly lower. The role of favorites is therefore strong – perhaps too strong, considering that the Italians were given clear advantages in the last two attempts against Sweden (2017) and North Macedonia (2022) and were ultimately surprisingly eliminated.
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It is also a fact that the pressure is of course on the home side. An entire nation is expecting to advance on Thursday evening and to buy one of the last tickets for the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada and Mexico on Tuesday. However, the task will not be a sure-fire success, as the guests from the United Kingdom have proven several times in the past that they can can be an uncomfortable opponent.
In the World Cup qualification, the Green & White Army, which will be loudly supported by many thousands of fans in Italy, took third place behind Germany and Slovakia, for example, and scored nine points. In both games against the DFB team, coach Michael O’Neill’s protégés held up well and narrowly lost 0:1 and 1:3 respectively.
Given that they only conceded six goals in as many matches The stable defense must be used as a bargaining chip. Only in two of the last 13 competitive games have the Northern Irish conceded more than one goal. This is one of the reasons why, before the “do-or-die” match in the New Balance Arena in Bergamo between Italy and Northern Ireland, I dare to predict that things will be rather low-scoring.
Italy – Northern Ireland odds | 3 top tips
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Nevertheless, I share the basic assessment of the best bookmakers and believe that the Gli Azzurri will be the favorites. Under Spalletti’s successor Gattuso, Italy won five of six international matches and presented itself in improved form – with the exception of the crushing 1:4 home defeat against Norway.
Because four of the last six victories including a clean sheet were celebrated and with a view to a possible playoff next Tuesday, if the team takes the lead, I recommend going into administration mode before the duel between Italy and Northern Ireland Odds for a home win after 90 minutes can be combined with a maximum of four goals in the course of the game. For the match combo “Win Italy & Under 4.5” a 1.55 is finally available in the ODDSET app.
With the ODDSET odds turbo for the World Cup playoffs, as a new customer you also have the opportunity to benefit from increased Italy vs. Northern Ireland betting odds. With a maximum stake of €5 you get an impressive 20.00 instead of 1.31 for the home win bet on the 1X2 market. Further information about the attractive ODDSET odds boosts can be found in the linked article.
Statistics highlights for Italy versus Northern Ireland
Italy – Northern Ireland Direct comparison / H2H balance
The selection teams have faced each other nine times so far. With six wins, two draws and only one defeat, Italy clearly leads the H2h. In this millennium, the Squadra Azzurra is still completely undefeated in seven matches. The Italians also kept a clean sheet against the Northern Irish six times in a row. This was also the case in the last two qualifying games for the 2022 World Cup, when there was a goalless draw in Northern Ireland and a 2-0 win for the 2006 world champions in Parma. It is quite possible that the underdog will leave the pitch again on Thursday without scoring.
Northern Ireland
Michael O’Neill
GOALS 5
ASSISTS13
Northern Ireland
Michael O’Neill
| 2Federico Gatti |
| 4Alexander Good morning |
| 10Giacomo Raspadori |
| 12Marco Carnesecchi |
| 13Alex Meret |
| 14Diego Coppola |
| 16Bryan Cristante |
| 16Davide Frattesi |
| 17Nicolo Cambiaghi |
| 20Giorgio Scalvini |
| 22Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 24Marco Palestra |
| 26Niccolo Pisilli |
| 27Andrea Cambiaso |
| 28Elia Caprile |
| 94Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 1Josh Clarke |
| 2Brodie Spencer |
| 3Daniel Ballard |
| 4John Toal |
| 5George Saville |
| 6Terry Devlin |
| 8Callum Marshall |
| 9Dion Charles |
| 11Paul Smyth |
| 12Conor Hazard |
| 19Patrick Kelly |
| 21Josh Magennis |
| 24Jamie Reid |
| 25Kieran Morrison |
| 26Pierce Charles |
| 27Shea Charles |
Betting base forecast & Italy – Northern Ireland Tipp
A World Cup without Italy is difficult for many football fans to imagine – especially in this country. After the Tifosi had to endure a lot of malice in the last two editions in 2018 and 2022, missing the World Cup finals for the third time in a row would be a real disaster.
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Such a scenario cannot be ruled out, but the Gattuso team is considered a relatively clear favorite against Northern Ireland and also against Wales/Bosnia.
Key Facts – Italy vs. Northern Ireland tip
- Italy won 5 of 6 international matches under Gattuso
- Northern Ireland have only conceded more than one goal in two of their last 13 competitive games
- Italy most recently remained without conceding a goal against the Northern Irish 6 times in a row
Nevertheless, it should be noted that Squadra Azzurra has often struggled against deep, compact defense lines in the past. That’s exactly what awaits the Green & White Army, which has its strengths in defense and set pieces. I therefore expect a test of patience for the home side, who have better quality, and in the end I will still decide on Italy vs. Northern Ireland Bet on the home win with under 4.5 goals. You can also play the 1.55 odds from ODDSET with the ODDSET free bet. Alternatively, it would be conceivable to bet on more goals being scored in the second half – overall and just for Italy!
Italy vs. Northern Ireland – best odds World Cup playoffs
Odds are subject to change. Last updated 26.03.2026 13:53