“The conflict in the Middle East is causing upward pressure on the price of crude oil, discounting Iran’s role as an oil producer and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a merchant route. A general downward trend in the prospects for the world economy in 2026 is foreseen.” Istat writes this in the Note on the performance of the economy.
The escalation of the conflict, he underlines, “has caused a shock on the supply side of energy products with potential systemic effects on economic growth, employment and inflation”.
The size of the economic impact of the current crisis, continues Istat, “difficult to evaluate at the moment, will depend on its persistence and on the possible compromise of the extraction infrastructures or supply routes. At the moment, the strong volatility of the stock markets suggests that the market has not yet fully discounted the hypothesis of a long-lasting conflict”.
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