Doubt is beginning to set in in Israel after the euphoria at the start of the war sparked by the coup represented by the immediate elimination of the Iranian supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. The IDF was, in fact, surprised by the rain of 200 rockets and 20 drones that Lebanese Hezbollah fired towards northern Israel during the night from Wednesday to Thursday. Aggravating circumstance: this offensive was coordinated with Iran, which launched four waves of missiles in parallel.
These attacks did not cause any casualties or significant damage. But they have had a real psychological impact, which risks encouraging the Israeli government to resort to “special operations”, in other words to massive reprisals, no longer limited to targets linked to Hezbollah, but also to Lebanese civilian infrastructures spared until now.
The same methods as in Gaza
Senior officers, quoted by the media, are now threatening to apply “to entire parts of Beirut” the same methods of destruction used in the Gaza Strip. Objective: to force the hand of the Lebanese government so that it decides to confront and disarm Hezbollah.
On the ground, the Israeli army took action. It established 20 command posts in South Lebanon. They are in addition to the three positions it permanently occupies in this region where infantry reinforcements have been sent.
This deployment of forces reflects a real disappointment. Hezbollah was believed to have been greatly weakened by multiple air raids against political leaders and leaders of its military wing, as well as its weapons stocks. For fourteen months, this Shiite movement, supported and armed by Iran, took its blows without reacting and seemed to be on its knees. However, this is not the case.
A certain pessimism is also perceptible about the chances of destabilization of the ayatollahs’ regime. The revolt of the Iranian population is long overdue. “At the end of the day, we cannot overthrow the regime, only the Iranians can,” admits Gideon Saar, the Israeli Foreign Minister. “Cracks have certainly appeared, but the Iranian regime is holding on and preparing for a war of attrition. Its goal is not victory, but to ensure its survival,” explains an Israeli diplomat.
To try despite everything to push the Iranians into the streets, the IDF is now targeting members of the Bassij, a paramilitary militia made up of volunteers, who carried out a bloody repression against opponents at the end of January. The IDF uses suicide drones against their roadblocks and transport vehicles, particularly in Tehran.
Uranium enrichi
Another factor of uncertainty: vagueness reigns over the fate of the 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% produced by Iran, which could allow it to quickly raise this percentage to 90% necessary for the production of around ten nuclear bombs.
Apparently, this uranium was buried deep under tons of concrete at a site protected from aerial attacks. According to Israeli military commentators, only a ground operation by American commandos and the IDF could fulfill this mission, although with the risk of heavy losses among the soldiers of the two countries.
To top it all off, Israeli officials, like others, are having difficulty deciphering the statements of Donald Trump, who blows hot and cold on the duration of the war, having the feeling that time is running out before the American president decides to end the war.
