Wars rarely produce “clean” victories, and the latest conflict between Israel and Hamas is no exception.
Fifteen months on, thousands have lost their lives, and hundreds more are injured. While Gaza lies in ruins, Hamas still holds power, hostages remain captive, and a fragile ceasefire hangs by a thread. Wars, intricate and often unpredictable, leave both sides claiming victory. Has either emerged victorious? To answer, we spoke with renowned experts.
Hamas: Broken But Breathing
Despite Israel’s military might, Hamas has survived. Its infrastructure is devastated, and its command structure weakened, yet it remains in control of Gaza. The question is no longer whether Hamas has been beaten; it has. The critical question now is what comes next.
Shlomi Eldar, a journalist with firsthand experience and expertise in Israeli-Palestinian relations, and Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council advocating for Palestinians, shared their insights. Though their perspectives are opposed, they surprisingly converge on several critical points.
According to Alkhatib, who witnessed Gazans’ suffering firsthand, “Hamas is a shadow of its former self.”
He warns that “Poorly trained teenagers wielding AK47s can still inflict damage.” Eldar agrees but notes that Hamas’ fundamentalist ideologies ensure its survival, as seen in its regroupments over the decades.
A Pyrrhic Victory for Israel?
Israel’s war objective was clear: eliminate Hamas, rescue hostages, and secure its southern border. Over a year later, the outcomes are mixed, at best. Hamas remains entrenched in Gaza, and Israel’s lack of a successor plan prolongs the very problem it sought to address.
Eldar emphasizes, “For every fighter we take out, they find a way to replace him.” The unexpected consequence is that Hamas’ grip on Gaza has been reinforced. Alkhatib adds that Hamas has been bolstered by the war, proving its resilience and legitimacy.
Beyond Hamas, Israel’s international standing is severely weakened, facing genocide claims in global courts.
The ultimate irony is that Israel, which initially swore against negotiating with Hamas, is now indirectly engaging in talks.
Theater of Failure
As the ceasefire took shape, Hamas staged a costume drama: fighters paraded released Israeli hostages in a show crafted for global attention. Eldar describes it as a stage show, noting that most of the crowd was children, suggesting desperation rather than genuine support.
“Hamas is no longer a social organization providing for the poor but a militant force clinging to power,” Eldar explains.
Alkhatib, whose family members are now homeless, sees the grim reality behind Hamas’ theatrics. Gazans are furious yet powerless in this geopolitical chess game, clinging to faint hopes in a cycle perpetuated by both Gaza’s oppressors and the media.
The Regional Chessboard
The conflict’s ripple effects have reshaped the regional balance of power, significantly impacting Iran. Alkhatib asserts that Iran’s Shia influence is collapsing, and its proxies in Syria and Lebanon are waning.
Eldar concurs, predicting that Hamas will seek support elsewhere beyond Iran, seeking alliances from global Islamic fronts.
The Palestinians are the biggest losers in this war. Despite Arab support for humanitarian aid, Arab states offer little shelter for refugees due to their own instabilities.
Alkhatib maintains that Palestinians are stuck in their current situation unless significant changes occur, such as transforming Gaza into a “Riviera of the Middle East,” an idea dismissed by Eldar as a fantasy.
No Winners, Only Losers
Both experts agree that there are no clear winners. Eldar sees Hamas, particularly its political leadership, beaten but expects Israel to emerge bruised and battered.
“The Israeli army razed Gaza, but it failed to conquer Hamas,” Eldar says, but believes that the war aids Israel’s future security strategy.
Alkhatib sees Hamas as the de facto winner in Gaza, dictating regional calculations.
“We’re stuck in the worst of both worlds,” Alkhatib concludes, “no peace, no total war.”
Eldar adds, “The biggest losers? Civilians on both sides, trapped in an endless cycle of destruction.”
So, who won the war? The answer, like the volatile Middle East, remains unresolved.
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