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Is a potentially devastating asteroid set to collide with Earth in 2032?
While the probability remains relatively low, data from NASA has brought this scenario into the public spotlight. The asteroid’s potential impact zone includes parts of the Pacific Ocean, South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
What Does This Mean?
Seven of the world’s most populous cities—Mumbai, Kolkata, Dhaka, Bogotá, Abidjan, Lagos, and Khartoum—could be at risk if the asteroid were to make impact.
Though the odds of impact are slim, experts agree that such an event would be catastrophic, capable of destroying an entire city.
However, humanity has made significant strides in planetary defense technologies, offering hope against such threats.
New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 helped us update its chance of impact in 2032. The current probability is 1.5%.
Our understanding of the asteroid’s path improves with every observation. We’ll keep you posted. https://t.co/LuRwg1eaCv pic.twitter.com/SfZIxflB95
— NASA (@NASA) February 20, 2025
On Tuesday, NASA updated the asteroid’s risk to a 3.1% probability of impact by December 22, 2032, the highest for a large asteroid in modern times.
What Is an Asteroid?
Asteroids are rocky objects orbiting the Sun, remnants from the solar system’s formation over 4.6 billion years ago.
Most asteroids reside in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, but gravitational forces occasionally push them towards Earth.
The Response to the ‘City-Killer’ Asteroid
Should the asteroid dodge Earth, it would likely detonate in the atmosphere with the force of eight megatons of TNT, over 500 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.
Designated as a ‘city-killer,’ 2024 YR4 is not large enough to threaten the planet but could cause significant damage to a city.
Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defense office, advises, “Don’t panic.”
As观测ations continue, the impact probability will fluctuate, but is expected to drop to zero.
Even with a 100% probability, experts are confident humanity is prepared to act.
Methods to Protect Against Impact
Hit It with a Spacecraft
In 2022, NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test successfully altered the trajectory of the Dimorphos asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it.
Multiple spacecraft could hit 2024 YR4, measuring any changes to its motion.
Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society, warns caution, as partial destruction could still pose a threat.
Gravity Tractor, Ions, and Spray Painting
A gravity tractor uses the gravitational pull of a near-proximity spacecraft to nudge the asteroid off course.
Ions emitted from a nearby spacecraft exert a steady push.
Spray-painting one side of the asteroid white could increase its reflectiveness, altering its trajectory.
Nuclear Bombing
Nuclear explosions could destroy the asteroid but raise ethical and legal concerns.
Recent experiments vaporized the surface of a small asteroid simulation with x-rays, pushing it apart.
Nuclear explosions risk unpredictably sending debris towards Earth.
Laser Treatment
Lasers could vaporize part of the asteroid, altering its path.
While promising, lasers are not considered the top method for deflection.
What If These Options Fail?
Expert Richard Moissl asserts that deflection is possible with sufficient global cooperation.
Decisions on action would be made by world leaders.
Evacuations of impacted areas could serve as a last line of defense.
Moissl reiterates that there is a 97% chance the asteroid will miss Earth, giving ample time for planning and preparation.
Will humanity be ready?
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