Due to its geopolitical location, in one of the most important bottlenecks of global energy trade – the Strait of Hormuz, in the Persian Gulf – as well as its enormous oil and gas reserves, its political ambitions and its nuclear program, Iran is considered a central player in the Middle East.
The country, with a Shiite majority and some 93 million inhabitants, has been the scene of protests throughout the national territory for two weeks, which were initially triggered by the economic crisis and which have meanwhile transformed into a revolt against the Tehran regime. Officially, the Islamic Republic’s authoritarian system blames its external enemies, particularly the United States and Israel, for the protests.
However, for the leadership it seems more natural to negotiate with the United States than to engage in dialogue with its own population. US President Donald Trump declared on January 11, 2026 that Iran would be willing to begin negotiations with the United States.
Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the subsequent occupation of the US embassy in Tehran, Iran and the United States have not maintained diplomatic relations. Since then, the bilateral relationship has been marked by ideological enmities, sanctions, security tensions and the conflict over the Iranian nuclear program.
“I think they are tired of being beaten by the United States,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. His government would be holding talks about a possible meeting between the two sides.
The United States demands that Iran completely suspend uranium enrichment for its nuclear program. The West accuses Tehran of secretly pursuing the construction of an atomic bomb. Iran denies this, although it has recently enriched uranium up to 60 percent. The Iranian nuclear program thus continues to be a central point of conflict in relations with the West.
Concern about stability in the Persian Gulf
The Arab countries neighboring the Persian Gulf are not considered allies of the Islamic Republic, but they have a strong interest in regional stability and avoiding a military escalation. An attack on Iran would carry the risk that Tehran would respond with attacks on US military bases in the region, of which there are dozens in neighboring countries.
“Before the current events, the Gulf Cooperation Council states had decided to accept the Islamic Republic as a political reality that had to be dealt with,” Farzan Sabet told DW.
Sabet is a policy expert, with a specialization in economic sanctions and security in the Middle East, at the Global Governance Center of the Geneva Graduate Institute.
He adds: “Later, after the events of 2019, they began to strengthen their own military capabilities and deepen their strategic relationships with allies. At the same time, they wanted to boost diplomacy and reduce tensions with Iran.”
The regional rivalry between the Shiite leaders of Iran and the Sunni monarchy of Saudi Arabia for hegemony in the Middle East – among other scenarios in Syria, Iraq and especially Yemen – intensified in 2019, after refineries of the Saudi state oil giant Aramco in Abqaiq and Khurais were attacked with drones and missiles. The attacks temporarily cut Saudi oil production in half. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels were blamed, although Tehran denied direct involvement.
In recent years, Iran and Saudi Arabia have begun a cautious rapprochement mediated by China. Both countries are considered important trading partners for Beijing, which depends on stability in the Middle East to ensure its energy supplies.
More sanctions and political pressure
For Beijing, which has steadily expanded its influence in the Middle East and continues to import cheap Iranian oil despite US sanctions, the protests and new US sanctions are not good news.
As allies of the Islamic Republic, China and Russia have harshly criticized the “snapback” mechanism activated in September 2025 by the United States and the E3 countries – Germany, France and the United Kingdom – to reimpose UN sanctions against Tehran, calling it legally inadmissible. These sanctions had been lifted in 2015 within the framework of the JCPOA nuclear agreement between Iran and the five powers with veto power in the Security Council, plus Germany.
The United States unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018, under President Trump, with the goal of achieving a better pact. That objective is still valid for the American president.
Russia, under Putin, supports the Islamic Republic
The person most likely to fear a free and democratic Iran would be Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, considers energy strategist and expert Umud Shokri, of George Mason University, in Fairfax, in the US state of Virginia.
Speaking to DW, he stated: “Russia has great influence over the current government of the Islamic Republic. It would not be good for Moscow if a government came to power that endangered Russia’s interests in the region or in its foreign policy.”
Iran is among the three countries with the largest oil reserves in the world and at the same time has the second largest natural gas reserves globally. “If Iran manages to attract the necessary capital and technology and regain its share in the energy market once sanctions are lifted, the share of other exporting countries will gradually decline.”
However, Shokri believes that a stable government in Tehran, democratically elected by the people, could benefit all other countries in the region. That would mean the end of the interventionist foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which affects all countries in the region, whether they want it or not.
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