In stark defiance of the expected repercussions of the war, the largest credit rating agencies in the world affirmed the stability of the financial positions of the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, while maintaining a “stable” outlook, despite the ongoing conflict and the almost closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
While tensions rage in the region, the ratings of “AA+/A-1” for the UAE, “A+/A-1” for Saudi Arabia, and “AA” for Qatar came to confirm global markets’ confidence in the strength of the Gulf economies. Agency reports indicated that the momentum of non-oil growth and associated revenues would support these economies and their financial path.
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The Saudi Ministry of Finance reported that the Kingdom’s financial position is strong and that it has access to multiple export routes, at a time when it continues an expansionary fiscal policy to support economic diversification programs.
For its part, Fitch reported that Qatar’s strong balance sheet and its plans to increase liquefied natural gas production will help mitigate the impact of the escalating conflict. The agency expects the average price of Brent crude to reach $70 per barrel in 2026, and that the Qatari general budget surplus will rise to 4.1% of GDP by 2027.
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Based on its baseline scenario, S&P believes that the main threats facing Saudi Arabia will begin to diminish by the end of March as tensions ease.
