The IPCA-15 registered deflation of 0.14% in August, thanks to the incorporation of the so-called Itaipu bonus in power accounts and the fall in food prices, with the rate in 12 months going down 5% amid indications of the central bank maintenance of interest at high level.
This was the first negative result since July 2023, when there was a drop of 0.07%, and the most intense deflation since September 2022 (-0.37%).
However, the expectation was an even more significant drop: according to average Reuters compilation, the projection was a 0.19% low in the month and up 4.91% in 12 months.
Continues after advertising
In the view of the XP macroeconomic team, the analysis of the August IPCA-15 showed deterioration on the margin, with rekindling the prices of underlying services. In this sense, the fundamentals prevailed: currency appreciation was reflected in an improvement in recent inflation of commercialized goods, while the heated labor market limits the misinflation of services. “That said, we maintain our 4.8% projection for the 2025 IPCA. For 2026, we projected 4.5%,” he says.
Itaú points out that home feeding presented deflation once again, -0.92% in the month. In 12 months, this category accumulates high of 7.25%. By the end of the year, we expect the group to follow in deceleration, ending slightly below 5.0%.
Industrial goods were stable. In twelve months, industrial goods accumulate high of 3.39%, but already reach 1.99% in annualized quarterly variation. Currency appreciation continues to be reflected in this group, something also observed in other price rates, such as IGPS, with relevant price declines to producers.
Continues after advertising
Services inflation rose 0.50% in the month, prompted mostly for a lower drop in airfare and electricity. In 12 months, underlying services accumulate high of 6.62%, while the annualized quarterly moving average is 5.83%. In addition to the effects mentioned, some more volatile sub -items also came higher, such as cinema and insurance.
“Today’s data showed a disseminated Altist surprise in underlying services and services, interrupting the downward trend of last disclosures and reinforcing the altist impact of the tight inflation labor market. Disclosure does not change our base scenario – we continue to expect 5.1% inflation for the year, with underlying 7% services,” says the bank.
Bradesco also points out that the IPCA-15 August was above what it expected, with services more pressured by several more volatile items.
Continues after advertising
“The result does not change our vision for the group, which should end the year close to 6.0%. In the segment of industrial goods we continue to observe a low behavior, as well as in food prices. In our scenario of economic slowdown ahead, we continue to see the cooling of inflation for the end of this year and throughout 2026,” says Bradesco’s economic team.
Natali Victal, economist -chief of SulAmérica Investimentos, evaluates that the services have accelerated again, with those underlying the upper limit of projections and intensive labor items returning the relief seen in July. Os preços de industriais, excluindo automóveis novos, também vieram piores que o projetado. “Thus, the data interrupts the recent sequence of positive surprises for current inflation and can reduce the momentum of low revisions in projections to 2025,” he says.
Luciano Costa, chief economist of Monte Bravo, reinforces the view that the nuclei showed worsening, with advances in services and industrial goods, reinforcing the perception that the inflationary scenario remains challenging. Service inflation remains high, driven by a still very heated labor market, with unemployment rate at the historical minimums.
Continues after advertising
“Given this framework, monetary policy should remain restrictive to moderate growth, relieve employment pressures and ensure the convergence of inflation on the relevant horizon,” he says, noting that the maintenance of the stable Selic rate at least AA at least until the end of 2025 remains the best strategy at this time for monetary policy.
Based on this scenario, Monte Bravo revised the IPCA projection of August, which went from 0.15% deflation to deflation of 0.10%. The lowest impact of the Itaipu bonus, the most pressured services and the reduction of the intensity of food deflation are the factors that explain this review. On the other hand, it maintained the 5.0% projection for the 2025 IPCA.
