After a period of relative stability in 2025,interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages in switzerland are projected to perhaps increase in the coming months. This forecast comes from an online comparator, which attributes the anticipated shift to a combination of internal and external economic pressures.

Despite the Swiss National Bank (BNS) lowering its key interest rate to 0.25% in March,its effect on fixed mortgage rates has been limited thus far. though, according to Watson, several economic indicators suggest that this situation could change before the year’s end.

Calm before the storm: stable, but fragile fixed rates

While borrowers with saron mortgages have seen a decrease in costs due to the BNS’s monetary policy, fixed-rate mortgages have remained relatively stable.

Indicative rates for 10-year mortgages were at 1.66% in June 2025, a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points as the start of the year.

Dirk Renkert, an economist and real estate expert, suggests that this stability might be short-lived. He stated that ” The indicative rates of fixed mortgages in the medium and long term could again increase by the end of the year“. This potential increase is attributed to various factors influencing the Swiss and international economies.

The indicative rates of fixed mortgages in the medium and long term could again increase by the end of the year

Unstable global economic context

A key factor influencing this potential rise is instability in the international arena. Geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine, and the economic policies of major powers like the United States significantly impact the volatility of financial markets.

The impact of Germany’s debt due to increased military spending and the downgrade of the United States’ credit rating by Moody’s have contributed to high rate volatility earlier this year.

In March, indicative rates for fixed mortgages briefly surpassed 2% before declining amid recession fears. This volatility suggests that fixed mortgage rates may have reached their lowest point, with a potential reversal if the swiss economy remains stable.

The impact of banking reforms and the disappearance of Credit Suisse

The implementation of the Basel III reform package in January 2025 is another factor that could contribute to rising interest rates.

Thes reforms mandate that banks hold more equity for each mortgage,increasing their financing costs. These additional costs are likely to be passed on to borrowers, leading to higher interest rates.

The collapse of Credit Suisse and the increased dominance of UBS in the Swiss banking market also play a role. This situation allows UBS to potentially impose higher margins on mortgage loans, further driving up rates for future borrowers.