Indonesia Economic Growth: World Bank Upgrade – Stockbit News

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IHSG	Foreign Flow	Exchange rate USD/IDR	Gold
9.075 +0,47%	+Rp 958.2 billion	16.890 +0,11%	4.616 -0,44%

Oil	Coal	CPO	Nickel
63,7 -4,22%	112,0 +1,63%	3.981 -1,44%	18.694 +5,73%

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World Bank revised upwards Indonesia’s economic growth prospects in the 2025–2027 period are around +0.2–0.3 percentage points compared to previous projections in June 2025. Here are the details:

• 2025F: 5% (vs. Juni 2025: 4,7%)
• 2026F: 5% (vs. Juni 2025: 4,8%)
• 2027F: 5,2% (vs. Juni 2025: 5%)

For comparison, the government in the 2026 APBN targets economic growth in 2026F to reach +5.4%, while Bank Indonesia’s projection is at +5.3% YoY. Compared to 2025F, The World Bank expects economic activity in 2026F in the East Asia and Pacific region (EAP) will slow down. Nevertheless, Indonesia’s growth is expected to be maintained at +5% level, supported by fiscal stimulus and increased investment driven by the government. During 2025 itself, the World Bank estimates that private investment in EAP is likely to be weak, except for Indonesia and Malaysia which are driven by government initiatives and capital investment.

In line with comments from the World Bank, Minister of Investment and Downstreaming and CEO of Danantara, Rosan Roeslani, expect Both foreign investment and domestic investment will continue to grow in 2026 because investors can collaborate with Danantara.

The Ministry of Investment and Downstreaming itself released investment realization data on Thursday (15/1), where Investment realization in 4Q25 reached IDR 496.9 T (+9,7% YoY, +1.1% QoQ). This result makes investment realization during 2025 reach Rp1.931,2 T (+12,7% YoY), equivalent 101,3% target 2025 at the level of IDR 1,905.6 T. Growth in investment realization during 2025 was driven more by domestic investment which grew +27% YoY, while foreign investment was flat. As for investment targets in 2026 at the level of IDR 2,175 T or an increase of around +13% YoY from realization in 2025.

Key Takeaway

Compared to several countries in Southeast Asia (see table), Indonesia’s economic growth projections are relatively higher than Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines, although not as high as Vietnam. We judge that Convincing macroeconomic improvements have the potential to attract foreign inflows to the JCI again, especially in blue chip stocks such as the banking sector and consumer sector.

💰 IRSX Berencana Rights Issue Rp3,7 T

• $IRSX: The Army Flobs plans to hold a rights issue of ~12.4 billion new shares with the execution price Rp. 300/sharethe ratio is 1:2, and the dilution effect is up to 66.7%. The potential for obtaining funds from this corporate action is reached ~Rp3,7 Twhich will be used to deposit capital to several subsidiaries for working capital, such as: 1) acquisition of long-term commercial rights for collaboration with artists, influencers and affiliates; 2) event working capital; and 3) working capital for content production and distribution costs. PT Matra Tri Abadi as the company controller stated that he would exercise all his rights and be a standby buyer. This rights issue will also be accompanied by the issuance of warrants of up to ~1.24 billion shares with 10:1 ratio and the implementation price is IDR 350/share. The rights exercise period is scheduled for March 11–17 2026, while the warrants exercise period is August 25 2026–August 24 2028.
• $TINS: Managing Director DanantaraFebriany Eddy, said on Wednesday (14/1) that his party will not yet inject capital into Timah because the company is considered still able to make improvements without requiring additional capital. Febriany explained that TINS has the option to restructure independently or obtain funding support from MIND ID as the holding company for mining BUMN. Danantara will position itself as the last funding option, although it still opens up investment opportunities if there are commercial prospects at TINS. Previously, the Director of TINS, Suhendra Yusuf Ratuprawiranegara, said in November 2025 that his party would likely prepare a proposal to obtain an injection of funds from Danantara, with the potential for the funds obtained to be channeled to PT Timah Industri as a subsidiary to support downstreaming.
• $INCO: Vale Indonesia announced that its work plan and budget (RKAB) the company for 2026 has received approval from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources on Thursday (15/1), although he did not provide further details. With this approval, the company can resume all operational and construction activities in Sorowako, Pomalaa and Bahodopi.
• $UNTR: United Tractors announced it has completed a buyback of ~68.5 million (1,84%) stock at average prices Rp. 29,189/sheet or a total value of ~IDR 2 T on 30 October 2025–14 January 2026. After this transaction, there is no remaining allocation of buyback funds.
• $HUMI: Humpuss Maritim Internasional shareholders on Wednesday (14/1) approved an overhaul of the management composition, with I Gusti Ngurah Askhara Danadiputra was appointed as the company’s main director replaced Tirta Hidayat and Indra Yurana Sugiarto was appointed director replacing Dedi Hudayana. I Gusti Ngurah Askhara Danadiputra — known as Ari Askhara — was the former main director of Garuda Indonesia ($GIAA) in the 2018–2019 period as well as the main director of GTS International ($GTSI) as a subsidiary of HUMI. HUMI shareholders also agreed Mahdan as main commissioner replacing AR Sofyan, as well Dedi Hudayana as commissioner the company replaced Daryono. Apart from the position of main commissioner, Mahdan also serves as the company’s independent commissioner.
• $INTP: Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa notes decline in cement sales volume of -4% YoY in 4Q25so that INTP cement sales volume during 2025 fell -4% YoY (vs. 9M25: -4% YoY, 2024: +8% YoY). INTP market share remained stable at 29.1% in the 10M25–12M25 periodbut tends to be low compared to the performance at the beginning of the year. This is in line with the company’s strategy to increase selling prices in 4Q25, especially in the bag cement segment. In terms of segmentation, bagged cement sales fell -1% YoY during 2025 (vs. 9M25: -1% YoY), while bulk cement sales fell -11% YoY (vs. 9M25: -12% YoY).
• $AYLS: Agro Yasa Lestari announced that PT Bintang Cahaya Investment has acquired ~594.7 million (69,69%) company shares from PT Anugrah Cakrawala Dunia worth ~Rp39,8 M. After this transaction, PT Bintang Cahaya Investment will become the new controller of AYLS and will carry out a mandatory tender offer.
• $JRPT: Jaya Real Property plans to implement it again share buyback up to 47.6 million (~0,37%) sheet in period January 14–April 13, 2026 with fund allocation up to IDR 50 M. Previously, JRPT had reported the results of the buyback for the period 13 October 2025–12 January 2026, where the company bought ~22.4 million shares at an average price of IDR 958/share or a total value of IDR 21.4 billion.

Top Gainer 🔥

$BBYB	$INDY	$BBNI	$PTRO
+5,49%	+5,18%	+4,13%	+4,03%

Top Loser 🤕

$ENRG	$UNVR	$THIS	$hrum
-5,26%	-5,04%	-5,04%	-4,28%

🔥 Another hot thing you need to know…

• The Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, claimed on Wednesday (14/1) that the government will not raise the legal limit for the budget deficit from the current level of 3% of GDP. Airlangga’s statement came amidst the movement of the rupiah which was approaching a record low in history, with the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar at the close of trading on Thursday (15/1) at the level of 16,890 (-0.18%) and approaching the all-time low level of 16,957 printed on intraday trading April 9 2025. Bloomberg reported that the recent weakening of the rupiah was driven by fiscal concerns, with the 2025 APBN printing a deficit of 2.92% to GDP.
• The Director General of Mineral and Coal at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Tri Winarno, said on Wednesday (14/1) that Nickel ore production quota in the 2026 RKAB will likely be around 250–260 million tons, 31–34% lower than the 2025 RKAB at the level of 379 million tons. Tri said that the quota would be adjusted to the smelter’s capacity.
• The price of gold on the futures market for the February 2026 contract fell to US$4,585/troy ounce (-1.1%) on Thursday (15/1), while Brent oil prices on the futures market for the March 2026 contract weakened to US$64.2/barrel (-3.5%). The price reduction followed a statement by the US President, Donald TrumpWhich eased market concerns over potential US military action against Iran. Trump on Wednesday (14/1) said that the killings amid Iran’s handling of demonstrations were starting to subside.
• Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, said on Wednesday (14/1) that The government plans to form a new BUMN in the textile sectorwith support funding of US$6 billion from Danantara. These funds will be used as incentives and financing for the textile sector, amidst global tariff pressure and intense competition. Through the formation of this new BUMN, Airlangga targets the value of textile exports to increase from US$4 billion to US$40 billion in the next 10 years.
• Business reported on Thursday (15/1) that The Ministry of Finance is considering 3 options to tackle the circulation of illegal cigarettesamong others: 1) limiting sales of production machines cigarettes only to producers registered with the customs and excise office; 2) addition of new categories of cigarettes within the excise regulatory framework; and 3) postpone the increase in cigarette excise rates. Previously, the Minister of Finance, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, said on Wednesday (14/1) that the government planned to add a new category to the excise framework to accommodate illegal cigarettes, with regulations likely to be released next week.
• The Chinese customs administration noted that Coal imports in December 2025 rose +12% YoY to ~58.6 million tons as stock is replenished ahead of Chinese New Year, so China’s actual coal imports during 2025 will reach 490 million tons (-9,6% YoY). This marks the first calendar year contraction in China’s coal imports since 2022. Following this data, the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTD) said on Wednesday (14/1) that The main importer of coal in China is likely to reduce purchases because coal prices in the domestic market are expected to fall as domestic production remains strong and new renewable energy production increases.
• Chairman Indonesian Tin Exporters AssociationHarwendro Adityo Dewanto, said on Wednesday (14/1) that his party estimates that the tin production quota in the 2026 RKAB will be in the range of 60,000 tons, up +13.2% from RKAB 2025 at the level of 53,000 tons. Harwendro added that the quota approval process is currently still ongoing.
• Managing Director DanantaraFebriany Eddy, said on Wednesday (14/1) that his party will limit the portion of capital injection to rescue BUMN in 2026. Febriany said that Danantara’s focus this year was shifting its investment strategy to creating added value for state-owned companies and the national economydifferent from the approach in 2025 which is directed at saving and revitalizing BUMN. In addition to shifting investment strategies, Danantara is also preparing major restructuring steps for BUMN, where the number of BUMN companies which has reached more than 1,000 entities is targeted to be reduced to around 200 companies.
• Industry-wide cement sales volume was recorded as relatively flat on an annual basis in 4Q25 even though it increased +2% QoQaccording to Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa ($INTP) management records. This result slightly above expectations management of INTP and Semen Indonesia ($SMGR) in the 9M25 earnings call, which estimates that industry-wide sales volume in 4Q25 will be lower than 3Q25. During 2025, the decline in industry-wide cement sales volume slowed slightly to -2% YoY (vs. 9M25: -3% YoY, 2024: -0.4% YoY), which was partly influenced by the low base–effect in the previous year. This result slightly better than projections from INTP and SMGR that industry-wide sales volume will be corrected by around -2.5% to -3% YoY in 2025. Based on segmentation, industry-wide bag cement sales volume will increase +1% YoY during 2025 (vs. 9M25: -0.1% YoY), while bulk cement sales will fall -8% YoY (vs. 9M25: -10% YoY). INTP management estimates that cement sales will remain soft in 1Q26along with high rainfall and the Eid holiday period starting earlier. Cement sales are expected to start rebounding in 2Q26supported by increased construction activity and expectations regarding the effectiveness of the government’s economic stimulus transmission.

❓ Beware of Stocks with “Unreasonable” Valuations and the Seduction of Stories that are Too Beautiful

“Often, what looks like a big opportunity turns out to be just a stage that has been prepared so that someone can come out smoothly. And don’t let us be the way out.” — husin1030

Interesting quotes from the Stockbit community this week

In the trading community, we often come across stock recommendations that only say “just believe, this issuer is good.” In fact, without a clear basis such as financial reports, profit growth, or industry prospects, recommendations like this could just be mere flattery. Not infrequently, the same shares continue to be brought up and discussed, giving rise to confirmation bias within the investor community. In his writing, @Husin1030 discusses how investors should review issuers rationally and develop entry exit strategies based on data and not emotions. Starting from reading financial reports, analyzing PER & PBV, to weighing the pluses and minuses of a rights issue, not just following the story that the issuer is “doing well.” Curious about what factors are considered important by @Husin1030 in assessing shares amidst current economic conditions? Check out the following article!