Jakarta –
The government calls the Indonesian Capital City (IKN) a green, smart and sustainable city of the future. However, international research and a recent report by The Guardian warns that this ambition could be disastrous if Borneo’s forests are sacrificed and new cities become empty of inhabitants.
The most recent assessment was given by The Guardian. In an article published on October 29, The Guardian predicts IKN will become a ghost town. The lack of population which can cause a weak economic turnaround and a decrease in budget support for development are the causes.
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Long before The Guardian released that article, a study on IKN had been carried out by a joint research group from Indonesia and a number of other countries. The research was conducted by Hoong Chen Teo et al, including an Indonesian researcher, Saut Sagala, and published with the title Environmental Impacts of Planned Capitals and Lessons for Indonesia’s New Capital in the scientific journal Land published by the Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) in 2020.
The research refers to the experience of 12 countries that have already built new capital cities. Namely, in Abuja, Belmopan, Brasilia, Canberra, Dodoma, Islamabad, Lilongwe, Naypyidaw, Nur-Sultan (Astana), Sejong, Washington DC, and Yamoussoukro.
Using spatial analysis based on night satellite imagery (DMSP-OLS and VIIRS) from 1992-2018, the research found that there were two patterns of development of the new capital city.
The first pattern shows a very fast growth rate in the early stages, the first 5-120 years with a radius of 10-30 km from the city center. Then, the second pattern shows that growth will slow down and move from extensification (expanding outward) to intensification (increasing density and economic activity).
If the same pattern occurs in IKN, either the first or second pattern, then the area around IKN, which includes Kutai Kartanegara and North Penajam Paser, not far from the Bukit Soeharto Grand Forest Park, and around 200 km from the “Heart of Borneo” conservation area, has the potential to experience major changes to its natural landscape.
Development in the area greenfield like IKN means most of the land is still forested. The face of Kalimantan, which is identically green, is slowly turning into a concrete jungle.
“The impact is that the risk of deforestation, habitat degradation and carbon release is very high,” said Teo et al.
Researchers estimate that potential emissions from direct deforestation reach 50 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, while indirect impacts due to urbanization and infrastructure development within a radius of 200 kilometers could reach 2.3 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, equivalent to 126 percent of Indonesia’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2014.
If not controlled, this development could erode Kalimantan’s role as a lungs of the world.
The concerns in this research re-emerged after IKN was said to be a ghost town. The Guardian uploaded the outpouring of the hearts of the Baik and Walhi indigenous tribes. The Sepaku River is starting to dry up, they are having difficulty with water.
Apart from that, The Guardian highlights social and economic aspects. This super magnificent city is only inhabited by a few people, ASN and construction workers. Referring to the article entitled Indonesia’s New Capital, Nusantara, in Danger of Becoming A ‘Ghost City’, currently there are only 2,000 ASN and 8,000 construction workers living in IKN, far from the target of 1.2 million people by 2030.
Recently, MSME businesses around IKN have been sluggish. The accommodation is rarely full.
Teo et al concluded that the construction of a new capital city, including IKN, not only changed the physical map, but also the social and political map of Indonesia. The construction of new cities always carries symbolic meaning and power interests, as a way of showing progress and national pride, but beyond that, the impact on the environment can be enormous.
However, that doesn’t mean IKN is without hope.
“IKN can also show a turning point, as long as it is managed in the right way. Development of IKN can be an opportunity to improve environmental governance and show that Indonesia is capable of developing cities without destroying its nature by implementing best practices in environmental impact assessment and sustainability policies,” is the suggestion from Teo et al.
(bnl/wsw)
