The Final Polls: A Jumbled Picture Emerging Before Election Day
As Election Day approaches, the expectations for the presidential contest are becoming increasingly uncertain. The final polls before the big day have revealed a multitude of narratives, making it difficult to predict who will take the White House.
No Clear Picture from Final Polls
If you were hoping that the last-minute polls would provide a clearer snapshot of the campaign, you were likely disappointed. The final polls suggest a multitude of theories about the contest — but no consensus answer. Key questions remain unanswered: Are late deciders breaking for Trump or for Harris? Are polls underestimating Trump’s support or overcorrecting to the point where Democrats are being underestimated?
Latest State and National Polls: Mixed Signals
State Polls:
- Some polls, like the highly respected J. Ann Selzer’s Iowa poll, show Harris leading by 3 points.
- Other state polls suggest close races or small leads for either candidate.
National Polls:
- Nationally, Harris’s lead has narrowed, with some polls showing the race to be within a 1-point margin.
- Final state poll averages indicate a deadlocked election with at least one swing state showing a slight lead for either candidate.
The Role of "Herding": Pollsters Adjusted Their Results
Political observers have noted a phenomenon known as "herding" — where pollsters adjust their results to reflect an expected close outcome. As Nate Silver points out, the likeliness of seeing so many close polls is astronomical.
How to Interpret the Final Polls
Given the mixed signals, election wonks typically advise sticking to the averages. However, a few established pollsters like J. Ann Selzer’s Iowa polls and the New York Times/Siena College National polls deserve attention.
Special Mention of J. Ann Selzer’s Iowa Polls
- Selzer’s Iowa poll, which shows Harris leading, has long been respected for accuracy.
- Her 2016 and 2020 polls correctly predicted close races and wins.
- In 2016 and 2020, Selzer’s polls were more accurate in predicting the vote compared to most other pollsters.
Should We Trust Selzer’s Latest Poll?
Selzer’s Iowa poll’s credibility is bolstered by her past performance. Critics point to potential reasons for her latest result, including a potential backlash against anti-abortion laws in the state. However, the poll remains just one individual result that could be an outlier.
The New York Times/Siena College Poll: Mixed Bag
The New York Times/Siena College poll displays a mixed bag for Kamala Harris:
- Some states show Harris leading, while others indicate close races or leads for Trump.
- The poll suggests the race in critical swing states will be very tight.
The Final Verdict: A Dadly Close Election or a Surprise Swing
Ultimately, the polls paint a picture of a very close election. Voters could experience a split-second decision that could turn the tide. The only way to resolve the uncertainty is to wait for the official election results.
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