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Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s Power Shortage: An In-Depth Look at His Hitting Woes
Despite strong underlying metrics,Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s power numbers are down. A closer look reveals a potential cause: hitting too many balls too the opposite field on inside pitches.
TORONTO – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is undoubtedly a key component of the Toronto Blue Jays‘ offense, but his power output has been a topic of discussion this season. While the team has been performing well, with an MLB-best .303/.357/.514 slash line, Guerrero’s .294/.390/.431 line as May 28 hasn’t quite matched that stellar pace.
The team needs “peak Vladdy” to sustain their success, as the rest of the lineup can’t be expected to maintain their current high level of performance indefinitely. Guerrero’s performance has often been a subject of scrutiny, with many feeling that he hasn’t quite lived up to the immense expectations placed upon him, especially in terms of power.
Despite crushing the ball, the 26-year-old’s results haven’t been truly elite. His underlying numbers suggest he’s making excellent contact and controlling the strike zone, but his isolated power (.143) ranks 112th among qualified hitters, contributing to a 129 wRC+, which ranks 38th out of 161 qualified hitters.
The Ground Ball conundrum
Early in his career, a high groundball rate was frequently enough cited as the reason for Guerrero’s lack of elite power. While his flat attack angle and low launch angle may always limit his power output to some extent, his groundball rate (47.4 per cent) is similar to his 2024 season (47.7 per cent).His launch and attack angle averages are also within one degree.
In essence, he’s using the same swing that produced a .522 SLG last season, powered by elite bat speed. his batted ball profile is also approximately the same as in 2024.
If Guerrero is hitting the ball with the same characteristics as last year and maintaining elite exit velocity, the question remains: where is the power going?
Directional Hitting: The Key to Unlocking Guerrero’s power
A closer examination reveals that the direction of his hits is a significant factor. In 2023, he struggled with harmless flyballs to center field. This year, he’s hitting an unusually high number of balls to the opposite field. His 29.1 per cent opposite-field rate would be a career high, well above his average of 24.0 per cent.
Historically, Guerrero has been equally effective hitting to right field as he has to left field. Though, this season, while his pulled balls are as dangerous as ever, he hasn’t done much damage going the other way.
While Guerrero still possesses the strength and hitting ability to generate opposite-field power, it hasn’t materialized this season. The types of pitches he’s hitting to the opposite field offer a clue.
In the past, Guerrero has thrived on pitches over the middle or on the outside corner, driving them on a line to right field. A typical impressive Vladdy opposite-field hit looks like this:
The heatmap for Guerrero’s career opposite-field extra-base hits shows a scarcity of inside pitches:
Guerrero typically hits outside pitches to the opposite field with authority. While hitting an inside pitch the other way with power isn’t impossible, it’s not a common occurrence.
This season, Guerrero has frequently taken inside pitches to the opposite field, resulting in medium-length fly balls with little chance of becoming extra-base hits:
Compared to his career norms, a much larger percentage of his opposite-field hits have come on inside pitches, rather than outside pitches he can drive to right.
