Baden-Württemberg is heading towards the state elections in March, but the tone has changed. The Green state government no longer stands for stability, but for a balance sheet that many see as a contributing cause of today’s imbalance. At the same time, Cem Özdemir has to attract attention in the southwest, even though he is politically in a losing position (nzz: 01/13/26). He needs headlines and he makes promises that clash with the party line in order to at least retain voters. He’s unlikely to gain any.
Baden-Württemberg: A green balance sheet becomes a mortgage
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In Baden-Württemberg, the auto industry shows how quickly political objectives collide with employment, orders and value creation. Winfried Kretschmann started 2011 with the provocation: “Fewer cars are better than more.” The shift to electromobility followed later, but the basic tone remained recognizable: renunciation is considered progress. This attitude is also reflected in the tone of the Green Transport Minister Winfried Hermann, who says that relocating production from Mercedes to Hungary “doesn’t hurt”. In Baden-Württemberg this now seems like a political advance payment for industrial dismantling, even if the global crisis was not caused in Stuttgart.
Energy costs also affect the location because electricity prices are far too high in international comparison. Companies plan investments over decades, but they need reliable energy and clear framework conditions. The southwest did not get either to the desired extent. The expansion of wind power fell short of major goals and at the same time some secured generation capacity disappeared. This increases the risk that companies will postpone projects or not start them at all.
Nevertheless, the municipalities are the ones feeling the price the fastest. In Baden-Württemberg, trade taxes are collapsing, while social spending is rising and new debts are shrinking the scope for action. Stuttgart had to move billions. In 2025, trade tax revenue there fell from 1,200 to 750 million euros. As a result, the auto industry is becoming a multiplier of the crisis because cuts at major brands are reaching suppliers and service providers.
While money is missing, doubts about the government’s competence are growing. When it comes to education policy, Baden-Württemberg lost its reputation as a model state because reforms came and were later corrected. Comparative tests showed weaknesses and many parents are experiencing a policy of changing direction. In addition, the watered-down elementary school recommendation seems like an untimely experiment when performance is slipping.
At the same time, transport policy represents a green signature, which is seen as a disadvantage in rural areas. Winfried Hermann is nicknamed “Traffic Prevention Minister” because many road projects stalled and the focus on cycle paths shifted priorities. When assembly jobs moved abroad in 2025, he showed understanding, but companies expect the automotive industry to be protected. At the same time, reducing bureaucracy often remained a claim, but almost nothing was implemented.
Özdemir’s emergency course: promises against his own line
Nevertheless, Cem Özdemir tries to present himself as a businessman. He is looking for proximity to the automotive industry and speaks of the priority of the location because otherwise he has no chance. But his party continues to set tough climate targets at the federal and EU levels and pushes for quick bans, which devalues his state message. This makes his course seem like a tactical shift that is primarily intended to attract attention.
Özdemir is also using the debt brake as a point of attack because he sees the CDU as vulnerable there. He said: “The CDU/CSU have blatantly lied to the people’s faces” and he portrays the deficit limit as a symbol of broken promises. However, a loud attack does not solve a location problem if the adjustment screws lie in Berlin and Brussels. Anyone who promises relief from energy costs must explain why their own party simultaneously supports decisions that can drive up electricity prices and regulation.
Nevertheless, this U-turn will only win over a small proportion of voters. Many see Baden-Württemberg in a situation that also arose from green government practice: expensive electricity, slow procedures, conflict-ridden transport policy and an education agenda without a stable line. That’s exactly why Özdemir’s “Economy, Economy, Economy” sounds to critics like a campaign signal without a solid foundation.
Coalition poker after the polls in the southwest
This makes the state election a vote on trust. If the CDU is clearly ahead and at the same time maintains its demarcation from the AfD, complicated coalitions remain. Either the CDU and the Greens govern under black leadership, or a left-wing alliance emerges. In addition, the state parliament could become larger and more confusing if several parties move in.
However, each additional faction increases the number of veto players. The election could therefore produce a government that needs even more compromises and therefore delivers even less. This would be risky for Baden-Württemberg because the auto industry expects quick decisions, not new rounds of political self-employment.
“Green is over!” – and why the sentence seems political
In the end, what matters is whether people can expect stability. Kretschmann’s sentence: “Fewer cars are better than more.” now stands against the fear of loss of prosperity while energy costs remain high and electricity prices slow down investments. In this situation, the cry “Green is over!” is effective. not like folklore, but like a judgment of many disappointed voters in the southwest.
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