Goldman Sachs 2026 Growth Forecast: Outperforming Expectations

The US is expected to grow by 2.6% and China by 4.8%… Trump tax cuts and exports to China
Korea expected to grow 2.0%… Domestic demand continues to remain sluggish despite semiconductor recovery

Goldman Sachs “Global economy will grow 2.8% in 2026″… Beats market forecasts

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Goldman Sachs Research last year 12month 19Day(local time) ‘20262018 Macroeconomic Outlook: solid growth, stagnant employment, stable prices‘ Through the report, the world economy 2026It is expected that solid growth will continue in 2018.. This is the average forecast of market experts 2.5%see 0.3%The point is high level.

This year, volatility in the US-China conflict continues and artificial intelligence(AI) Increased market volatility surrounding investments, As global economic uncertainty increases due to the acceleration of the United States’ national priority over Greenland and Iran, Goldman Sachs’ economic outlook is attracting attention again.

american economy, Intensive growth in the first half followed by slowdown in the second half

Goldman Sachs predicts U.S. economic growth this year 2.6%expected. market forecast 2.0%see 0.6%point high. Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs Research “Since the pandemic, we have remained more optimistic than the market about the U.S. economy.“said.

The main drivers of U.S. economic growth are tax cuts and easing financial conditions., Relieves tariff burden. Goldman Sachs estimates that the tax cut effect alone will reduce consumers’ 1000billion dollars(approximately 146trillion won)It was estimated that additional tax refunds would be received.. This is the annual disposable income 0.4%corresponds to. Hachius is “Gross domestic product particularly strong in the first half of this year(GDP) Expect growth“explained.

However, this growth trend may not be sustainable.. Tariff easing, according to Goldman Sachs analysis, tax cut, Policy effects, such as improvement in financial conditions, will be expected this year. 1branch and 2After focusing on the quarter 3It weakens sharply from the first quarter.. 2027There was also a possibility that the growth contribution could turn negative in 2018..

China’s current account surplus, world GDPof 1%zoom in

Outlook for China’s economy is mixed. Goldman Sachs estimates China’s economic growth rate this year 4.8%expected. market forecast 4.5%see 0.3%point high. Hachius is “China’s ability to produce increasingly higher quality goods at lower prices remains unmatched.“Highly evaluated. Analysis shows that China has proven its ability to suppress high tariffs on its exports, as seen in recent trade negotiations with the United States..

On the other hand, China’s domestic economy remains weak.. Goldman Sachs’ real estate division this year GDP growth rate 1.5%It was estimated that points would be pulled down.. Real estate sales compared to peak 60%, The start of construction 80% Although the maximum decline has passed, the recovery is minimal..

What is noteworthy is the rapid increase in China’s current account surplus.. Goldman Sachs analyzed that the combination of strong manufacturing and weak domestic demand is rapidly increasing China’s current account surplus.. in the future 3~5China’s current account surplus within the year is the world’s GDPof 1%It is expected to approach. Hachius is “This is the largest surplus achieved by any country on record.“saying “Eurozone fiercely competing with China, In particular, it will be a huge burden on Germany’s growth.“pointed out.

euro zone 1.3% growth… Germany’s expansion of fiscal spending is a support

Despite structural weaknesses, the Eurozone economy 1.3% expected to grow. market forecast 1.1%This level exceeds. Goldman Sachs says increased competition from China is driving population decline, excessive regulation, It was analyzed that this is further highlighting the structural weaknesses of the Eurozone, such as high energy costs..

Nevertheless, the reason why the Eurozone economy is able to maintain a decent growth rate is because of Germany’s expansion in fiscal spending and Southern Europe’s solid growth.. Hachius is “As German federal government spending increases rapidly, GDP It will help you grow“explained. In particular, in Spain, real consumption expenditure is about 3% We are continuing to grow, Economic diversification into high value-added service industries is also progressing rapidly..

By country, Germany last year 0.3%in this year 1.1%The growth rate is improving and, France is 0.9%at 1.2%It is expected to rise to. On the other hand, Italy 0.6%at 0.7%It was expected that there would be only a slight improvement..

Price stability in developed countries… policy interest rate 3% level convergence

Goldman Sachs forecasts that core prices in developed countries will fall to a level broadly consistent with policy goals this year.. In the United States, personal consumption expenditure(PCE) The main reason why prices remained high last year was the tariff pass-through effect.. Goldman Sachs estimates that, excluding tariffs, the inflation rate 2.3%It was estimated that it fell to. Assuming that tariffs remain at the current level, the rate of inflation is expected to slow sharply compared to the previous year due to the base effect from the second half of this year..

The main factor in price stability is the slowdown in wage growth.. U.S. nominal wage growth is currently 4% fell down. Goldman Sachs said this 2% It was assessed as below a sustainable level compatible with the inflation target.. In the UK, the recent wage increase rate has also been 3% stabilized at the level.

Accordingly, policy interest rates in developed countries are expected to converge downward.. US Federal Reserve System(Fed·fed)This year’s base interest rate is 50bp(1bp=0.01%point) Cut it down 3.0~3.25%It was expected to be lowered to. Hachius is “The US price problem has been resolved., The Fed may cut interest rates more than expected“said. The Bank of England this year 3Interest rates are cut every quarter until the end. 3%It is expected to be lowered to. norway central bank 50bp Cut it down 3.5%It was expected to be adjusted to. On the other hand, the European Central Bank(ECB)It is expected that the policy interest rate will be frozen even if prices fall..

korean economy 2% Internal and external growth prospects… export boom·sluggish domestic demand

Korean economy this year 2% Growth is expected both internally and externally. Goldman Sachs forecast Korea’s growth rate this year 2.2%predicted as. Major overseas investment banks 8The average forecast for the place is 2.1%It was counted as.

international monetary fund(IMF)Last month, Korea’s economic growth rate forecast for this year was 1.9%was adjusted upward to. Forecasts previously announced last year 1.8%see 0.1%Points are raised. IMFIs “The improvement in exports and consumption that has continued since the second half of last year is reflected.“explained.

The government set this year’s growth target as 2.0%presented as. On the other hand, the Bank of Korea and the Korea Development Institute(KDI)silver 1.8%There is a difference in perspective based on the outlook.. A Bank of Korea official said: “As memory semiconductor prices continue to rise, export recovery is expected to support growth.“said.

The problem is domestic demand. Private consumption is recovering slowly as the impact of high interest rates continues.. Construction investment is also expected to continue to slump as the real estate market continues to correct.. In the stock market “Even if exports are strong, the perceived economic performance may still be difficult if domestic demand recovery remains only moderate.“The evaluation comes out.

Global Economics Reporter Park Jeong-han park@g-enews.com