A complex and often contradictory image of the global economy is emerging, since a new wave of inflation in Europe meets a US labor market that is forced to use data blackout.
From a surprising stabilization of the battered Chinese real estate market to a political crisis in France – a number of powerful and competing forces shapes a deeply insecure world. Here are the most important developments that have shaped a volatile week.
An inflationary autumn breaks over Europe
The ghost of inflation, which was considered defeated for a long time, has returned to search for the continent.
In September, an increase in consumer prices was observed in the largest economies in Europe, a development that will reinforce the decision of the European Central Bank to leave interest rates unchanged.
In Germany, inflation rose to 2.4 % and thus as quickly as it has not been since February, a trend that is reflected in increasing price pressure in France, Italy and Spain.
In stark contrast, the Swiss inflation remained unexpectedly deep, a challenging development for a central bank that has to struggle with the oversized effects of the US tariffs.
A blind flight in a shutdown storm
A political crisis triggered an economic crisis in the United States. A government arrest, triggered by a bitter financing bags in Washington, has stopped the publication of the official employment figures for September.
This has forced the investors and the Federal Reserve to rely on a patchwork of data from the private sector in order to assess the health of the American labor market.
These indicators all indicate the same conclusion: a sluggish market with limited new hires and layoffs, a picture that should strengthen the arguments for the Fed’s interest rate.
The shutdown is not the only source of American uncertainty. President Donald Trump has arranged a new wave of tariffs on wood and furniture, a step that will hit Canada particularly hard and further disturb world trade.
A glimmer of hope, a rain shower in Asia
A more nuanced and divergent story unfolds throughout Asia. A possible sign of long -awaited stabilization is that the sales of residential properties in China remained stable in September – a rare glimmer of hope for a sector that is in a deep and persistent crisis.
In India, a mighty nature of nature has ensured a dose of economic relief.
The country has experienced the strongest monsoon for five years, a flood that improves the prospects for important harvests and raised hope that the stubbornly high food prices could finally decrease.
The golden fortress, a world of contrasts
While these economic and political dramas take place, a quiet but powerful vote of no confidence is given in the oldest safe port in the world.
The gold price continued its unstoppable increase, a rally that was so strong that the value of the massive gold reserves of the US finance ministry has now exceeded almost unimaginable $ 1 trillion dollars.
This escape to safety is a strong symbol for the deep and persistent fears that shape a world.
From central banking decisions in Africa to an impending financial crisis in Mexico, the global economy is a network of competing risks and rare opportunities, a complex image in which the only certainty is even more uncertainty.
