Exactly 15 years have passed since the “new Start treaty” came into force. Signed by America and Russia on February 5, 2011, the bilateral agreement contained measures for “further reduction and limitation of strategic offensive weapons” and “verifiable limits on all intercontinental-range nuclear weapons.” In detail, under the treaty, the United States and Russia could each deploy a maximum of 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and 700 nuclear weapons delivery systems. «It contained», yes, «they could», yes. Everything in the past. Because the treaty expired today. And now, for the first time in more than half a century, the world finds itself without any legal and binding limits on the nuclear arsenals of the two major powers, which together hold approximately 87% of the world’s atomic weapons.
In fact, we are now entering unknown waters, because the current world situation cannot even be directly compared to the years of the so-called Cold War, when despite everything we were faced with a well-defined picture.
In January, US President Donald Trump downplayed the approach of this moment: «The New Start treaty? If it expires, it will expire. We will stipulate a better one.” But in the meantime he has not shown the slightest interest in opening some channels of communication with Moscow to hammer out a new agreement against the proliferation of nuclear weapons. An attitude which, combined with the policy of aggression shown by Vladimir Putin, is giving rise to concern in many quarters. First of all, among European governments, who read Trump’s lack of interest as further confirmation of the fact that the USA has renounced its role as defenders of the Old Continent. And that, above all, with a possible enemy at the gates who in recent years has already threatened a nuclear attack several times, they now have to decide whether, in addition to increasing defense spending up to 5% of GDP as requested by Trump himself within NATO, they should also strengthen and “share” the «strike force» of France, the only nuclear power in Europe that can also play a deterrent role in the face of a crisis with the Kremlin.
But a nuclear arms race isn’t exactly what’s needed now. This is underlined by atomic scientists, who just a few days ago had reported that we have never been so close to a situation in which the very survival of humanity is at risk. They write today: “To say that the expiration of New Start is a cause for concern for many experts and officials in Washington and Moscow would be an understatement.” Not surprisingly, former President Barack Obama, who signed the treaty in 2010, wrote three days ago on Days have passed, the treaty has expired, and atomic scientists also highlight the risk not only of a new head-to-head between Washington and Moscow, but also of a tripartite competition that includes China, making global stability much more complex and costly to maintain. This is why they write that this is the opportunity to overcome the treaty format that bound only the US and Russia and formally involve other nuclear powers in a broader global security system: «If the end of the New Start entails risks and uncertainties, it also represents an opportunity for arms control to redefine itself and adapt to a multipolar world, perhaps moving from quantitative limitations to capacity limitations and inviting a greater number of nuclear powers to participate in discussions on arms control».
But the historical phase in which we find ourselves does not seem to point in a similar direction at all, on the contrary. United Nations Secretary General António Guterres also expressed strong concern about the expiry of the US-Russia anti-nuclear proliferation treaty, who in a note recalled that “throughout the Cold War and in the subsequent period, the control of nuclear weapons between these governments contributed to preventing catastrophes”, and added that these agreements have “created stability” and “prevented devastating errors of assessment”. Guterres warned that the collapse of this containment system comes at a particularly dangerous time, as geopolitical tensions increase and the risk of the use of nuclear weapons is “the highest in decades”: “The world now looks to the Russian Federation and the United States to translate words into actions,” the UN secretary general said, urging both sides to return “without delay” to negotiations and agree on a follow-up framework that restores verifiable limits, reduces risks and strengthens security global. Words that arrived on the eve of the expiry of the treaty and have currently remained unanswered.
