Germany has started receiving its first shipments of liquefied natural gas from Oman even as war in the Middle East chokes global supply routes, but a closer look at the country’s gas supply chain suggests that Berlin may be more exposed to the crisis than official figures suggest.
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These cargoes, delivered as part of a four-year contract signed in 2023 between the Omani state-owned LNG producer and German importer Securing Energy for Europe (SEFE), began as planned this month, a SEFE spokesperson told German magazine Capital.
The Sultanate of Oman is at the opposite end of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran, and the company says deliveries are not affected by the ongoing conflict.
This announcement brings a rare positive note in an energy landscape otherwise under tension.
Iran’s blockade of the strait has halted all LNG exports from Qatar, the world’s second-largest exporter, while an Iranian strike on production facilities in Ras Laffan, Qatar, in mid-March knocked out 17% of the emirate’s production capacity.
Economy Minister Katherina Reiche sought to play down the risks, saying Germany receives “no significant quantities” of LNG from the Gulf and that 90% of its gas arrives by pipeline from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium.
Germany more exposed than expected?
According to Capital, these figures are technically accurate, but they mask a more complex reality.
Last year, just 10.3% of Germany’s gas imports passed through its four LNG terminals, with volumes coming almost entirely from the United States.
In contrast, the Netherlands and Belgium, which together accounted for 45% of Germany’s total gas imports in 2025, are themselves among the EU’s largest LNG importers.
The Rotterdam and Zeebrugge terminals receive large volumes of liquefied gas by ship, regasify it and then transport it by pipeline to Germany.
The Belgian Zeebrugge terminal processed a record volume of 55.5 terawatt hours of LNG in 2025, double its previous record.
The Netherlands imported 45% of its total gas as LNG in 2024, with 30% coming from the United States alone, Capital reports.
As the origin of gas molecules flowing through pipelines cannot be traced, it is impossible to precisely measure the true extent of Germany’s indirect dependence on LNG, and its indirect exposure to US supplies. But the trend is clear.
German storage levels are further increasing the pressure. Reserves are currently around 22%, a historically low level for this time of year, according to Capital.
Market incentives to replenish stocks ahead of next winter are weak because spot and forward gas prices are roughly at the same level, meaning that currently only operators betting on a prolonged conflict are injecting gas into reservoirs.
The Federal Network Agency declared this week that it did not see any volume problem and considered security of supply guaranteed, stressing that the price guarantees provided for in supply contracts to individuals act as a buffer against immediate market shocks.
However, she recognizes that price volatility could continue depending on the duration of the conflict.
Europe: increased pressure on gas supplies
The TTF, the benchmark for gas prices in Europe, briefly exceeded 60 euros per megawatt hour after the attack on Ras Laffan, double its pre-war level, before falling back to around 55 euros.
The energy consultancy ICIS anticipates a price of 85 euros/MWh if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for three months, which would rise to 120 euros for six months and 150 euros for a one-year closure.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has spoken of extending the lifespan of coal-fired power plants in order to reduce gas consumption for electricity production.
At the same time, Katherina Reiche called on German importers to conclude long-term supply contracts with producers in Azerbaijan and Algeria.
SEFE is also launching this week a new call for tenders for LNG deliveries between 2027 and 2036, to terminals in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Belgium, a system explicitly designed, according to the company, to compensate for supply disruptions from the Middle East.
