The Aftermath and Potential Future Trends of Germany’s 2025 Federal Election
A Turning Point in German Politics
The results of the 2025 German federal election have revealed a significant shift in the political landscape, with the Coalition Party (CDU) securing 28.6% of the vote and the far-right Choose Germany (AfD) Party gaining 20.8%—almost doubling their previous support. However, even with these gains, Germany may form a coalition government consisting of the center-right CDU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD).
The Political Firewall
This election underscores Germany’s enduring "political firewall" against far-right parties, a lesson learned from the Nazi era. Despite the AfD’s gains, mainstream parties continue to refuse cooperation with far-right groups. Former U.S. Vice President Vance’s call to dismantle this firewall at the recent Munich Conference was largely ignored by Germany’s parties.
CDU and SPD: A Coalition of Convenience
For years, even though both CDU and SPD have traditionally held diverging worldviews, they have demonstrated a strategic pragmatism in governance. Post-election, this trend is forecasted to persist where CDU leaders seek to form a coalition complying and maintaining the current mainstream left leaders.
Election Implications and Leadership Changes
CDU’s Merz Secures Victory Without Exuberance
Winning the election, Merz stayed remarkably composed, reflecting his meticulous planning and preparedness. The formality he maintains speaks to Germany’s high standards for governance. Merz’s political journey, marked by alignment with Angela Merkel and bouts of power struggle, highlights his economic liberalism and conservative policies, distinct from Merkel’s moderate approach. Holding leadership roles over the years, his political presence isn’t new, but his current popularity makes him so.
The SPD’s Bleak Results
Year 2025 saw the SPD’s worst-ever historical results, with support falling below 20% for the first time. Current Chancellor Scholz noted the crushing defeat: "The SPD must immediately reform its program, its personnel, and carry out a complete generational shift."
The Rise of the Far-Right
The AfD’s surge to nearly 20.8% of the votes, a significant gain, reveals a broader cultural shift in Germany. Its strategic targeting of low-income groups, eastern voters, and anti-immigration, anti-EU sentiment-especially powered by the incidents of terrorist background has accurately paid off by doubling their support.
Trump noted the victory as a "new dawn for Germany and the United States." The SPD’s correlations to Angela Merkel’s political legacy and personality also deeply hurt them. Last three years saw continuous shift from SPD voters and rather many SPDers blaming them for not maintaining their governance interests.
Regional Dominance in Eastern Germany
The AfD has become the dominant political force in eastern Germany, particularly in states like Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Saxony, and Thuringia. Here, AfD’s support rate either led or nearly equaled the Coalition Party’s in many federal states.
Cabinet Negotiations: The Next Hurdle
Under German law, the party with the most seats does not automatically win the prime minister position. Instead, a ruling alliance with more than half of the parliamentary seats is necessary. The CDU and SPD have always stated their refusal to cooperate with the AfD, showing the societal priorities that prevail in German politics.
Given current support and previous negotiations the most feasible model now is the “Big Coalition” of CDU+SPD. However, these necessary measures compeled the replacement processes, unlike the SPD, gave less interferences.
Factors Influencing the Election
Economic and Immigration Concerns
Germany’s economic instability, exacerbated by consecutive negative growth years, fueled anti-immigration sentiment. As citizens grappled with inflation, the Green Party’s climate policies, viewed as too costly and ineffective, were blamed for skyrocketing living costs. In his statements, the AfD committed to easing this financial burdens through specific economic measures—reducing taxes, developing digitalization and artificial intelligence.
Major Policy Shift Towards Nuclear Power
Instead of targeting specific modernization elements through coalitions, interdisciplinary approaches towards improving governance efficiency, tackling internal energy security and energy independence by large alliances, gained numerous supporters. The bipartisan federation model creates milder but sustainable solutions.
The Future of the CDU and SPD
Though reforms and power shifts bewilder prophecies CDU-SPD alliance remains feasible. For young people, steadily increasing feasibility of on-ground government, the AfD’s extremist propaganda provides arguments that prosperities their stance. Realizing Germany’s diverse future the new regime changes its policies.
Fate-of-The AfD in the German Politics
So deeply ingrained in society, AfD governance shift from anti-immigration to regional economy empowered right banter betting political authenticity of a powerhouse.
FAiting The Future
Germans are more receptive to governing changes though retaining the Euro-centrist power shift constructs the story.
Pro Tips:
To prevent political fatigue, readers and fellow journalists can check reliable sources. Propose democratic politics, rejecting AfD economic-policy and emphasizing regional governance.
Did you know? Traditional SPD politics are often criticized for underestimating the importance of domestic economic policy while the younger generation still bets against its long-standing stance.