A city report outlines three scenarios for next year and warns that, under the new regime of bands tied to the CPI, nominality will be key to defining how far the official dollar can go.
The financial market already discounts the effects of the new exchange rate regime that will come into force in 2026 and already estimates the dollar price for the next few months. With the displacement of the floating bands, the value of the currency will no longer be automatic but will become tied to the evolution of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In that scheme, the inflation expected becomes the central variable to define the upper limit of the official dollar.
A report from the consultant GMA Capital points out that prices will be the main determinant of the exchange rate “ceiling” and proposes three possible scenarios for the end of 2026, prepared from data from the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic and the Market Expectations Survey (REM).
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Three scenarios for the official dollar in 2026
According to the level of nominality that the economy reaches, the upper band of the exchange rate could evolve as follows:
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Base scenario (inflation close to 24%): considered the most likely. The band would start January around $1,565, exceed $1,700 towards the middle of the year and close December 2026 around $1,915.
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Pessimistic scenario (inflation close to 30%): If disinflation advances more slowly, the adjustment of the band would be greater and the official dollar could touch $2,000 at the end of the period.
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Optimistic scenario (inflation close to 19%): With a more marked slowdown in prices, the exchange rate ceiling would be lower and would end the year near $1,843.
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The work also compares this new mechanism with the previous system of 1% monthly adjustments. Under this scheme, the upper band of the official dollar would have reached about $1,720 towards the end of 2026. In the base scenario of the new regime, however, the ceiling would be located at $1,915, which implies a difference close to $195.
What was the exchange band scheme like before the announcement?
The banding scheme was agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) before the partial disarmament of the exchange rate and forces the Central Bank to intervene if the exchange rate pierces the floor or exceeds the ceiling. Currently, that range is between $921.20 and $1,518.52, although with the new adjustment methodology those values will be outdated starting in January.
In parallel, The BCRA announced a pre-announced reserve accumulation program through purchases in the Free Exchange Market (MULC) even within the band, something that he had not done until now. In the base scenario, the entity plans to acquire up to US$10 billion in 2026, with the possibility of increasing that amount to US$17 billion if the demand for money grows faster, without resorting to aggressive sterilization. “The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic announced the start of a new phase of its monetary program for 2026, in line with our sustained vision from Research that the Government would advance in a recalibration of the bands to allow a greater accumulation of reserves,” said Pilar Tavella, Director of Research Macro & Strategy at Balanz.
With these rulesthe scenario that the consulting firms discount is that of a dollar that remains stable within the corridor, with gradual and smooth adjustments, as long as three key conditions are maintained: fiscal discipline, declining inflation and recovery in demand for pesos.
