The supply of foreign currency in the exchange market could increase by 70% during 2026 if greater oil production is achieved with marketing terms adjusted to the reality of the market, which could lead to a gradual elimination of the exchange gap that could end in a scenario without differential at the end of the year.
This scenario was outlined by economists Asdrúbal Oliveros, Jesús Palacios Chacín and Alejandro Guzmán Woodroffe in their most recent report Typing Business.
After the announcement, not yet finalized at the time of this note, of an injection of 300 million dollars to the banks from the oil bill, now controlled by the United States, to face an emergency exchange rate situation, economists estimate that “the message is relevant: the gap is no longer tolerable as ‘market noise’, and becomes the first major operational challenge of economic policy in this new stage.”
Regular supply of foreign currency
In general, analysts expect a process of regularization of the supply of foreign currency that, progressively, leads to a balanced situation, but there are still clearer signals that could materialize in the coming days, such as the granting of a broader operating license for Chevron.
“It is not just about selling dollars, but about organizing expectations, giving depth to the formal market – with a sustainable offer – and reducing dependence on parallel circuits,” the report states. Typing Business.
Economists Oliveros, Palacios Chacín and Guzmán point out that there is still no definitive supply scheme for foreign currency supply.
Other analysts estimate that it is most likely that the regular exchange intervention scheme by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will be maintained with a more transparent price formation mechanism, since there will be a greater supply of private origin.
«The key difference compared to other episodes is that, this time, the adjustment does not rely solely on specific interventions. The base scenario assumes a significant increase in foreign exchange flow in 2026, supported by two factors:
- Greater oil productionwith a gradual increase from 930,000 barrels per day to 1,133,000, which implies a growth of close to 22% in volume.
- Better marketing conditionsby leaving behind discounts of up to 20% in Asian markets and migrating towards market prices with clearer and more traceable payment terms,” the report states. Typing Business.
Implications for companies
The cited report points out that, for companies, expectations do not imply that exchange rate volatility will not automatically disappear, so financial management continues to be a fundamental aspect to take care of.
On the other hand, economists point out that “if the gap is reduced, the price formation rules, coverage incentives and replacement logic also change.”
Likewise, it is to be expected that some products, initially those related to the agroindustrial sector, could begin to lower prices as a result of the reduction in the exchange rate gap.
There is a key element for the scenario to effectively improve is that the currency supply mechanism is regularized. “The foreign exchange market is entering its first real test of 2026.” The announced express intervention “is an early sign.”
“The true adjustment will come from sustained flows, credible mechanisms and a more orderly reading of the new balance,” the report points out. Typing Business.
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