February offered a real electricity price shock.
Above all in Norrland – where prices rose by hundreds of percent.
Electricity experts are now talking about an “anxious and uncertain market”, and about “bull weeks stretching into March”.
According to Maria Erdmann PÃ¥ Godel, forward prices on the electricity market show that the annual average price will be higher in 2026 than in 2025. But the market is uncertain.
Photo: www.erikcronberg.se
According to Claes Hemberg, the electricity bill in February is usually lower than the one in January. But not this year.
Photo: Nibe
Spring is here and with it comes lower electricity prices. But this year they are fueled by unrest in the Middle East.
Photo: Johan Nilsson / TT / TT NEWS AGENCY
The article in brief
Table of Contents
â– Electricity prices rose throughout the country in February.
â– Prices have risen particularly much in Norrland this winter, where in SE1 it was more than 660 percent more expensive than last year.
â– Some reasons are cold, weak wind and increased electricity exports.
â– The forecast shows, for the time of year, relatively expensive electricity even in March.
The invoices for February will soon be dimming for the Swedish electricity consumers.
And it turns out that the month became even more expensive than January – when we saw the highest electricity prices since the energy crisis in 2022. It also became the most expensive February ever.
Above all in Norrland, prices have shot up – with an increase of 667 (SE1) and 580 (SE2) percent respectively compared to February last year, according to figures that Claes Hemberg, energy economist at Nibe, has produced.
Electricity prices in 2026
This is how the development of electricity spot prices looked in February compared to January this year, and compared to February last year:
Electricity area 1 (Luleå): 98.8 öre per kWh, compared to 93.9 öre in January this year and 12.9 öre in February last year.
Electricity area 2 (Sundsvall): 98.5 öre per kWh, compared to 94.2 öre in January this year and 14.5 öre in February last year.
Electricity area 3 (Stockholm): 110.2 öre per kWh, compared to 108.4 öre in January this year and 77 öre in February last year.
Electricity area 4 (Malmö): 113.3 öre per kWh, compared to 113.0 öre in January this year and 103.9 öre in February last year.
The electricity bill includes, in addition to the spot price and the electricity trading company’s mark-up, electricity grid fee, energy tax and VAT.
Source: Nordpool’s spot prices
“Scanian” electricity prices in the north
– In practice, the northern parts of the country have received Scanian electricity prices, he says in an email, and continues:
– Normally, the southern parts usually have three to five times more expensive electricity prices, but now during February the whole country had the same expensive prices. It’s something we may see more of, especially in cold weather.
According to Hemberg, the price increases in the north are primarily due to the cold, poor wind and electricity exports to Finland, where the new Aurora power line was put into operation in November last year.
Bad with wind
Also Maria Erdmann, CEO at Godel, says that the high prices can be derived from the fact that “wind power has not delivered what it could”, in combination with high demand.
– In a large part of households in Sweden, electricity is used for heating, so when it gets cold we demand more electricity. Then it simply costs more.
When it gets warmer, consumption drops and thus, usually, also the price of electricity. But this year there are several concerns that keep the price up. For example, the war in Iran affects the export of liquefied gas to Europe, which in turn affects electricity prices on the continent – which spills over into southern Sweden, where in recent days it has been significantly more expensive than in the north.
“Really troubled market”
– It is really a worried and uncertain market right now. There is concern that there will not be enough gas in Europe, which affects electricity prices in Sweden. But the market’s forecast is still that March will be cheaper than February, says Maria Erdmann.
Another, local, point of concern is “far too little precipitation”.
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– There is a concern that we do not have enough water in the reservoirs, and then we will not be able to have as much supply from hydropower as we would like. It can also drive up prices, says Erdmann.
Positive turnaround is postponed
Claes Hemberg believes that the high prices will primarily affect residential households, whose average invoice has risen by ten percent from January to February. He describes it as “the ox weeks, which usually end in January, stretch into March”.
In addition, “Skanians can receive winter electricity prices even during the month of March”, due to the Iran war.
– The positive turn in the household economy, which many have been looking forward to, can now be delayed until April. Lower electricity taxes and payroll taxes have not helped the first months of the year, says Hemberg in his email.
