The Rise of Al-Sharaa and Turkey’s Influence

The end of last year marked a significant turning point in Syria, with the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the ascent of Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of a resistance group backed by turkey, to power in damascus. This progress seemingly positioned Turkey as the dominant force in the region, notably following the withdrawal of Assad’s allies, Russia and Iran.

Initially, there was optimism about the potential return of over 3.5 million Syrian refugees from Turkey and the curbing of influence of Syrian Kurds in the northeast, who have close ties with Turkish Kurds, a concern for Ankara. Even former President Trump publicly expressed admiration for President Erdogan, acknowledging his strategic success in Syria. Though, the reality on the ground is proving to be more complex.

Navigating Regional Tensions: Israel and the Gulf States

Despite two visits by Al-Sharaa to Erdogan, concrete outcomes remain limited.Both leaders are encountering resistance due to their close ties, particularly from Israel, which views the new Syrian regime as a potential threat and continues to conduct airstrikes within Syria. This necessitates a cautious approach from both Ankara and damascus.

According to recent data from the Council on Foreign Relations’ Global Conflict Tracker, the Syrian conflict remains highly volatile, with multiple actors vying for influence. This complex landscape underscores the challenges facing Turkey and the new Syrian leadership.

Turkey’s Strategic Investment in Al-Sharaa

turkey’s influence over Al-sharaa has been carefully cultivated over several years. Ezgi Basaran, a Turkey expert at the University of Oxford, notes that since 2015, Turkish officials, particularly Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, have served as mentors to Al-Sharaa and his group. This support extended to economic aid, military intelligence, and other forms of assistance when Al-Sharaa gained control of an autonomous area in Idlib in 2019.

Furthermore, Turkey has solidified its presence in Northern Syria by occupying a border zone and supporting the Syrian National army (SNA), a militia that has fought against Syrian Kurds. When Al-Sharaa’s HTS group unexpectedly seized Damascus, Turkey was swift to offer support and guidance.

Since 2015, the Turks, especially Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, have acted as a kind of mentor for Al-Sharaa and his group.
Ezgi Basaran, University of Oxford

Beyond Military Support: Shaping a New Image

Turkey’s support extends beyond military and strategic assistance. Basaran points out that even al-Sharaa’s new Western-style attire came from upscale boutiques in Istanbul. Fidan and the head of Turkish intelligence were also the first foreign officials to visit Damascus, signaling Turkey’s commitment to the new regime.

Avoiding Past Mistakes: Lessons from the Arab Spring

Turkey aims to prevent Al-Sharaa from suffering the same fate as the Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi and the tunisian Ennahda regime, both of which were supported by Turkey after the Arab Spring. These regimes,aligned with Erdogan’s AKP party’s moderate fundamentalist interpretation of islam,faced strong opposition from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,leading to their swift downfall.

Basaran explains that the AKP has developed a “toolbox” to support such regimes, emphasizing the importance of winning local support through effective governance and public services, while also maintaining positive relations with countries like Saudi Arabia and the Emirates.

The AKP has as developed a kind of toolbox to support such regimes. erdogan wants to show the world that a moderate fundamentalist party can indeed drive the contry.
Ezgi Basaran, University of Oxford

Economic Interests and Regional Diplomacy

Fidan is actively working to cultivate positive relationships with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, driven in part by Turkey’s economic interests. Turkish companies are hoping to play a significant role in the reconstruction of Syria, but this will require financial support from the Gulf States. However, as long as US and other international sanctions remain in place, the prospect of reconstruction remains uncertain.

Challenges Ahead: Defense Agreements and Shifting Priorities

Despite turkey’s efforts, its regional influence is not without its challenges. While the Turkish army maintains a presence on military bases in Syria as a deterrent against Kurdish forces, a formal defense agreement with Syria has yet to be signed.

Malik Al-Abdeh, a Syria analyst and publisher of the ‘Syriaintransition’ newsletter, suggests that Al-Sharaa is proving to be a less pliable instrument than before. As a head of state, his priorities have shifted, and he may be hesitant to enter into a defense agreement that could alienate the Gulf States and Israel.

I suspect that Al-Sharaa would rather put that defense agreement on the long track, with that he would chase the gulf States and Israel to Harness.
Malik Al-Abdeh, Syriaintransition

A Tangled Web of Alliances and Antagonisms

The Syrian conflict continues to be a breeding ground for intricate alliances and deep-seated rivalries. While Turkey seeks to solidify its influence, particularly in northern Syria, other players are actively working to counter those efforts. This complex interplay of interests is shaping the future of the region.

Israel’s Strategic Concerns and actions

Israel’s involvement in the Syrian conflict is driven by its security concerns, primarily the containment of Iranian influence and the prevention of attacks from Syrian territory. Prime Minister Netanyahu has openly expressed his apprehension about Turkey’s growing role in Syria, stating this week that Our relationship with Turkey has deteriorated, and we don’t want Syria to be used by anyone, including Turkey, as a basis for attacking israel.

Beyond rhetoric, Israel has taken concrete actions to safeguard its interests. These actions include reported bombings of military targets within Syria and the occupation of a significant portion of the Golan Heights. Furthermore, Netanyahu has previously called for the demilitarization of southern Syria, underscoring Israel’s determination to maintain a buffer zone.

According to recent reports, Israel’s strategic focus appears to be more on countering perceived threats than fostering alliances. As one analyst noted, erdogan knows more about his enemies than his friends and Israel is now the moast risky enemy for him.

Kurdish-Israeli Cooperation: A Thorn in Turkey’s Side

Adding another layer of complexity, Syrian Kurdish groups are reportedly seeking support from Israel, much to the dismay of Turkey.According to Basaran, Kurdish leaders recently told me that Israel had contact with them almost every day and offered them to protect them. This potential alliance could significantly alter the balance of power in the region,further complicating Erdogan’s plans.

Mediation Attempts and the Status Quo

Recognizing the escalating tensions, efforts are underway to de-escalate the conflict. Last Wednesday, representatives from Turkey and Israel reportedly engaged in consultations in Azerbaijan, a country with strong ties to both nations. Additionally, former President Trump has offered to mediate between the parties. However, despite these efforts, tensions remain high.

Analysts suggest that, for the foreseeable future, the current status quo is likely to persist. Al-Abdeh observes: Turkey will retain its sphere of influence in the north, on the border, in Idlib but also the region around Aleppo. but that also applies to the Kurds in the northeast, and Israel can create a safety zone in the south. In that respect, it is therefore not even such a big difference with the situation under Assad. This suggests a continuation of the fragmented control over Syrian territory, with various actors maintaining their respective spheres of influence.

The Future of Syria: A Region Divided?

The Syrian conflict shows no signs of abating, and the country remains a battleground for regional powers vying for influence. With Turkey, Israel, Kurdish factions, and other actors pursuing their own agendas, the prospect of a unified and stable Syria appears increasingly distant. The ongoing power struggles and shifting alliances will continue to shape the region’s future for years to come.