The whispers are becoming a roar – El Niño is officially coming.
Well, probably.
In an announcement from NOAA, the National Weather Service, and the Climate Prediction Center, they provided a prediction for the upcoming months, in terms of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern. And the verdict is…?
“A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance),” the announcement reads. “In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.”
So, what exactly does that entail?
During El Niño patterns, Describe NOAA: “A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, rainfall tends to become reduced while rainfall increases over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The low-level surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator (‘easterly winds’), instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing the other direction (from west to east or ‘westerly winds’). In general, the warmer the ocean temperature anomalies, the stronger the El Niño (and vice-versa).”
Related: Extreme ‘Godzilla’ El Niño Incoming This Year, Expert Says
And although NOAA is being a bit more conservative, in terms of their official predictions for an El Niño season incoming later this year, others are prophesizing something bigger, something gargantuan. One weather forecaster even claimed a “Godzilla” The Child.
Now, should an El Niño pattern develop this summer, depending on the monster size of it, what will it mean for surfers? Here’s a refresher from a previous article on SURFER:
Summer
West Coast: More hurricane swells. Fewer southern hemis. Warmer local waters. (Find a spot that likes shorter interval south swells.)
East Coast: Fewer hurricanes. (Resist the SUP. Consider a trip to Baja.)
Hawaii: Fewer southern hemis. (Find a spot that likes wind swell.)
Winter
Pacific Northwest: Lots of swell, less wind and rain. (Get it while it lasts.)
California: Warmer water and more swell, but also more wind and rain. (Find a spot that likes south winds.)
East Coast: No significant surf impact.
Hawaii: Lots of swell, wind and rain. (Find a spot that’s well protected.)
Buckle up.
Related: Rare ‘Super’ El Niño Is Coming This Year, Expert Says (Video)
