A new study warns that gravitational disturbances from passing stars could potentially throw Earth off its orbit, leading to collisions with other planets or even the Sun.

The research,published in the journal “Icarus”,indicates that “passing field stars” may exert a greater influence on the Solar System’s stability than previously understood. These stars appear near the same sky region as other celestial objects.

Based on thousands of computer simulations, the study reveals that a star with a mass similar to our Sun, passing within 10,000 astronomical units (AU) of our Solar System, could significantly disrupt the Oort Cloud. The Oort Cloud is a distant spherical shell of icy objects marking the outer boundary of the Solar System, far beyond Pluto.

The study emphasizes that “Passing stars are the most probable instability trigger during the next four billion years.” It also suggests that the planets in the Solar System, including pluto, are less stable than previously believed.

“Our simulations indicate that isolated models of the solar system can underestimate the degree of our giant planets’ future secular orbital changes by over an order of magnitude. In addition, our planets adn Pluto are significantly less stable than previously thought,” wrote astronomers nathan Kaib and Sean Raymond, the study’s authors, in May.

Increased Risk of Orbital Instability

The study further reveals that the gravitational influence of passing stars could increase the risk of orbital instability for Mercury by 50-80 percent. Over the next five billion years, there is also a five percent chance of chaotic gravitational interactions affecting Pluto.

“Passing stars are the most probable instability trigger during the next four billion years.”

“We also find an approximately 0.3 percent chance that Mars will be lost through collision or ejection and an approximately 0.2 percent probability that Earth will be involved in a planetary collision or ejected,” the researchers stated.

Potential Collision Scenarios

One scenario suggests that if Mercury’s orbit is altered,it could trigger a chain reaction,causing Venus or Mars to collide with Earth. Other scenarios include Earth crashing into the sun, or gravitational shifts leading Venus and Mars to hurl Earth toward jupiter, potentially ejecting Earth from the Solar System.

While these possibilities remain statistically low, the findings highlight the potential existential risks to planetary stability posed by cosmic events far from Earth over the long term.