Guinea votes Sunday in a presidential election in which Mamady Doumbouya, who seized power in a coup in 2021, is widely expected to win a seven-year term.
The former special forces commander, believed to be in his early 40s, faces eight other candidates in a fragmented field without a strong rival. The overthrown former president Alpha Conde and the veteran opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo remain in exile.
Guinea has the largest bauxite reserves in the world and the richest untapped iron ore deposit at Simandou, officially opened last month after years of delay.
Doumbouya has taken credit for driving the project and ensuring that Guinea benefits from its production.
His government also revoked the license of Guinea Alumina Corporation, a subsidiary of EGA, this year following a dispute over a refinery, transferring its assets to a state-owned company.
The turn towards resource nationalism —also reflected in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger— has increased in popularityas well as his youth in a country where the average age is around 19 years.
“For us young people, Doumbouya represents the opportunity to send the old political class into retirement,” said Mohamed Kaba, a mechanic in Conakry. “Right now there is a lot of corruption, but I hope these things are solved.”
Doumbouya expected to consolidate power
If elected, Doumbouya “will likely use his position to further entrench his and the army’s power over Guinea,” said Benedict Manzin, senior analyst for the Middle East and Africa at risk consultancy Sibylline.
“In particular, it is likely to position its allies and partners to benefit from the expected economic boom linked to the start of production” in Simandou, Manzin added.
A transition letter adopted after the coup prohibited junta members from running for office. But In September, Guineans overwhelmingly backed a new constitution which eliminated that clause, extended presidential terms to seven years and created a Senate.
Provisional results showed a turnout of 86.42%, although opposition figures disputed this.
Opposition activity restricted during the campaign
Guinean leader Mamadi Doumbouya salutes after presenting his candidacy for the presidential elections
Political debate has been muted under Doumbouya. Civil society groups accuse his government of banning protests, curtailing press freedom and restricting opposition activity.
The campaign period “has been severely restricted, marked by the intimidation of opposition actors, forced disappearancesapparently politically motivated and limitations on media freedom,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk declared on Friday. These conditions “risk undermining the credibility of the electoral process,” he added.
The government did not respond to a request for comment. Doumbouya kept a low profile during the campaign, letting his representatives defend his candidacy.
At a closing rally Thursday in Conakry, he avoided giving a speech, although he danced with his wife while Congolese star Koffi Olomide performed.
He was wearing a white baseball cap and a sports jacket with the name of his movement: Generation for Modernity and Development.
Some 6.7 million people are registered to votewith provisional results expected between 48 and 72 hours after the polls close.
