The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, benefiting from the rise in energy prices while uncertainty persists over possible negotiations between Washington and Tehran, between announcements and denials. “The foreign exchange market continues to be influenced almost exclusively by developments in the Gulf region”souligne Volkmar Baur, de Commerzbank.
The day before, Donald Trump made a spectacular turnaround, going from threatening to escalate the war with Iran to announcing “very good” talks to end it. What to provoke “a calming effect on the markets”note Scotiabank analysts, and cause the dollar to fall. “But this impact was relatively fleeting”add these experts, while Iran has refuted the existence of these discussions.
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Iran and Israel again exchanged strikes on Tuesday, some of which targeted Iranian energy infrastructure, which sent oil prices up again. And the White House affirmed that its operations against Tehran continue “relentlessly”. For Marc Chandler, of Bannockburn Capital Markets, the announcements of the American president are “received with suspicion”the market fearing the manager’s about-faces and the lack of developments on the ground.
Around 6:20 p.m. GMT, the greenback gained 0.34% against the euro, to $1.1574, and advanced 0.47% against the pound sterling, to $1.3368. The American currency continues to fully play its role as a safe haven, as it has since the start of the conflict in the Middle East. “Which makes it intrinsically fragile if geopolitical tensions ease or if markets come to conclude that the worst energy disruptions have already been priced into account”warns Kevin Ford of Convera. An asset usually very popular in times of uncertainty, gold fell further on Tuesday. It fell 0.10% to 4,402.69 dollars per ounce (31.1 g).
