If you think you’ve seen the bottom in 2018 or 2022, you may need to rethink your definition of a “bear market.” A number of prominent analysts are raising red flags that the coming crypto winter will be fundamentally different from anything we’ve experienced so far.
Legendary crypto analyst Willie Wu dropped the bombshell: the next bear market won’t obey the rules we know. Forget Bitcoin halvings every four years. Forget the cycles of M2 money supply from central banks. This time is different – and not in a good way.
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“The last business cycles that were really felt were 2008 and 2001 – before crypto markets were invented,” Woo explained, as quoted by CoinTelegraph. In translation: cryptocurrencies have never experienced a true recession in the traditional economic sense. So far the market has danced to the rhythm of halvings and money printing, but the next downturn will come from the real economy – falling GDP, rising unemployment, falling consumer spending.
The question no one can answer: Will Bitcoin behave like tech stocks during a recession or live up to talk of “digital gold”? According to experts, it is likely to disappoint both parties.
The weather looks ominous. October 2025 has already gone down in history with the largest liquidation in history – over $19 billion in leveraged positions evaporated in 24 hours following trade tensions between the US and China. Bitcoin tumbled from $122,000 to below $102,000, its first intraday move by so much money in history. If that doesn’t give you a cold sweat, nothing will.
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The technical signals are so pessimistic that even eternal optimists are starting to back up their portfolios. 10x Research‘s Bull/Bear Indicator turned red. CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator has entered bear territory, with the 365-day moving average near zero.
“We maintain a tactically pessimistic stance, expecting a potential return to $100,000,” 10x Research wrote. While institutional players are quietly reducing risk exposure, retail traders are still stuck near their zero levels – a classic capitulation setup.
Analyst John Glover went even further, declaring the bull market officially dead. His prediction: Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 or lower – a potential 35% drop from current levels around $108,000. Not only that, but his expectation is that the bear won’t hibernate until late 2026.
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Historical four-year cyclical patterns project a potential peak around October 2025, followed by a trough in October 2026. The monthly RSI patterns repeat the pre-crash behavior of previous cycles.
Of course, not everyone is super pessimistic. CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno argues that the recent mass liquidation has reset market positioning without breaking the broader bullish trend. According to him, Bitcoin could still head towards $150,000-$195,000 if it regains the $115,000 levels. But even he admits that blockchain metrics are currently signaling heightened risks.
Complicating factor: Tariffs have already cut into growth in the first half of 2025 and are expected to continue to drag on GDP growth in the first half of 2026.
So there is definitely something to keep die-hard holders up in the middle of the night – will October 2025 prove to be the critical exit window before a long winter? There are only a few days left in the month…
This material is analytical in nature and does not constitute advice to buy or sell assets.
