More than two months into the college basketball season and with exactly two months to go until Selection Sunday on March 16, we now have a robust amount of data on which to evaluate players, coaches, teams, and conferences across the sport.
Some teams have clearly outperformed expectations, such as Ole Miss, Florida, and Illinois.
Others like Arkansas, Rutgers, and Indiana, which began the year ranked, have struggled with rocky starts that threaten their NCAA Tournament chances. Indiana’s 94-69 home loss to Illinois on Tuesday, for instance, left fans chanting for the firing of head coach Mike Woodson.
Arkansas, under new head coach John Calipari, is off to an 0-4 start in SEC play, adding to the scrutiny around the team’s performance. Rutgers faces a long road to qualifying for the NCAA Tournament after a 9-8 start, including a difficult 2-4 record in the Big Ten.
The disappointment in college basketball isn’t limited to teams. Some highly-paid players and coaches have failed to meet the significant expectations associated with their compensation. Similarly, certain conferences have underdelivered.
Who Has Been the Biggest Disappointment So Far?
Arkansas
The highest-ranked team that isn’t in Jerry Palm’s latest projected bracket for the 2025 NCAA Tournament is Arkansas. John Calipari’s Razorbacks were highly touted in the preseason, including taking over as head coach from Kentucky after signing a record-breaking contract.
Despite their high expectations, Arkansas is 11-6 overall, 1-6 in the SEC. Given their talent and investment, expectations were sky high, making their current record particularly disappointing.
According to KenPom, Arkansas is projected to finish the season with a 17-14 record and a 6-12 mark in SEC play. This would be insufficient for March Madness eligibility, a significant drop from their preseason prospects.
In January, Calipari had to manage the aftermath of Arkansas’ 78-74 loss to LSU, where the team’s performance reinforced doubts about their NCAA Tournament chances.
Calipari’s offensive strategy is under scrutiny, with the Razorbacks struggling to score efficiently. Their shooting percentage through four SEC games is 36.1%, their 3-point mark is 26.1%, and they average 63.8 points per game, ranking poorly in each category within the SEC.
The Buck Stops with Calipari
Calipari’s leadership is being called into question. Preseason polls expected Arkansas to finish fourth in the SEC, not currently struggling at the 14th position.
During a postgame press conference following the LSU loss, Calipari acknowledged he needed to improve. “I got to do a better job,” he stated twice, an indication of the significant pressure he is under.
His former program, Kentucky, under new coach Mark Pope, is performing exceptionally well. Kentucky’s 3-1 start in the SEC reflects a stark contrast with Arkansas’ struggles.
Kansas State
Kansas State was another preseason highly-ranked team that has since faltered. Starting the 2024-25 season at No. 24, the Wildcats are currently 7-9.
A key addition was Coleman Hawkins via the transfer portal, but his performance has not met expectations. Hawkins, currently averaging 10.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game, has shown promise but hasn’t yet proven to be the game changer the team needed.
The Wildcats have had considerable roster turnover, a fact that complicates their struggles. Jerome Tang’s coaching tenure is facing a significant test, with expectations not aligning with reality.
Kansas
Kansas, the preseason No. 1, began the season with high hopes but has stumbled. Despite deep additions, particularly in the backcourt, the team’s complementary players have not been consistent.
Core players like Hunter Dickinson, Remy Harper, and KJ Adams have performed as expected, but newcomer Zeke Mayo and occasional flashes from Rylan Griffen have not equaled the preseason hype.
A transfer class headlined by AJ Storr, who seems to be losing favor with the coaching staff, has not yet translated into success on the court.
The Jayhawks are currently ranked in the top 10, but their 12-4 record does not align with pre-season expectations and raises questions about postseason prospects.
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Indiana
Indiana’s struggles under Mike Woodson are notable. Despite an impressive transfer portal haul, the Hoosiers stand at 13-5 with a worrying 4-3 record in Big Ten play.
Back-to-back wins against Iowa and Illinois by 25 points each have raised concerns about Woodson’s tenure.
With the Big Ten still open, Indiana has time to turn things around. However, if improvements do not occur soon, Woodson might be facing potential replacement in the near future.
Rutgers
Rutgers’ start in the season has fallen short of expectations. Despite a team headlined by Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, the Scarlet Knights sit at 9-8, including a difficult 2-4 record in the Big Ten.
While Harper and Bailey have produced strong performances, the supporting cast has under-delivered.
Defensively, Rutgers has struggled, especially on the perimeter and in the paint. Portal additions like Jordan Derkack, PJ Hayes, and Zach Martini have not provided the impact needed.
With a brutal non-conference schedule, Rutgers has had little respite, and their current standing puts them in a tight position heading into Selection Sunday.
The challenges are significant, but Rutgers’ historically strong offensive firepower, particularly from Harper, could provide a foundation for improvement.
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Conclusion: Lessons Learned
The college basketball season has been as unpredictable as ever. Teams that were expected to challenge for national titles are in unexpected positions, and players and coaches who were once darlings of the sport are now under significant pressure.
For Arkansas, the challenges extend beyond the court. John Calipari faces an uphill battle to turn around the Razorbacks’ fortunes. The effectiveness of his offensive strategy and his ability to integrate a talented roster will be crucial.
Kansas State and Kansas, both anticipated to dominate, have had their seasons disrupted by issues ranging from inconsistent newcomers to key player underperformance.
Indiana and Rutgers, looking to build on exciting transfers, have run into underperformance from supporting cast members and defensive vulnerabilities.
As the season progresses, these performances will either serve as a catalyst for change or highlight the significant challenges in college basketball.
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Share your thoughts in the comments section below. What team or player are you most excited about this season? What do you think it will take for the struggling teams to turn things around?
