(METEOGIORNALE.IT) As highlighted by several forecasts that we have published with our articles, many Italian regions they will have temperature estive For several days again. Even maximum temperature peaks superiors of 30 ° C are expected in some areas of the Po Valleyespecially in coincidence of the appeal of hot air from the south that will be before the transit of a sort of Mediterranean storm, in short of a disturbance generated by the atmospheric instability which, in contact with the warm waters of the Mediterraneanwill produce a Extremely rainy front with violent thunderstorm associates.
But such front It will not be the actor who will start a significant drop in the temperatureindeed this weather event is the son of the high temperatures that we will have, and we have already talked about the fact that some weather stations could touch nearby peaks or even around even the 40 °C.
What we are going to identify in this study is when we have the First period that we could define as coldor when there will be a significant lowering of the temperature even beyond 10 °Cbut this time more widespread, which will also extend towards the Southern Italywhen the neve on Alps Also at quotas under 2000 meters above sea level. We are basically talking to you about when there will be a weather change That will anticipate the autumn ones.
Then, for heaven’s sake, I remember once again that the seasons have changedwhich are no longer the ones of the past, and that when we talk about fallsometimes we find ourselves having to comment for weeks an almost summer anomalous weather, and we saw it in different vintages, when not only the month of Septemberbut also that of October has had extremely mild temperatures, such as to allow the influx of mass to the Italian coasts, with millions of people who were able to enjoy the October sun at the sea.
Even in the past it has happened that in some regions of southern Italy October it had several very mild days, such as to allow bathrooms at sea, But what happened in recent years is that there has not been a few sunny days with the heat that has allowed, so to speak, the flow towards the sea, but of whole weeks.
Let’s see the cold. The mathematical forecast models that we observe, with projections of up to two weeks, differ significantly on the weather in the long term: the model European mathematician does not identify fresh waves at least until 20 Septemberwhile the American mathematical model, which often on the long -term weather has had good reliability compared to the European one, proposes a first break of fresh air even to the heart of the Mediterranean Seaa real change compared to what we have seen so far.
In all this there is nothing extraordinary, nothing exceptional, nothing recorded regarding the cold, because in Septemberespecially towards the end, it is quite common to have fresh air irruptions of Atlantic origin.
Even in 2024in Septemberfresh air came from Siberiabut in Siberia At that time it was not cold, indeed there was a wave of heat, and therefore that weather event passed as remarkable from a meteorological point of view for the synoptic, but certainly not for the rigid time.
However, especially with the help of mathematical models that push the longer term forecastswe observe that There is a trend towards the exchange of air masses according to the meridians. What does it mean according to the meridians? It means that we will have an intensification of the transfer of cold air from the north to the south and hot air to the north, therefore thermal changes, and therefore also the possibility of Having sudden drops in the temperature followed by very mild phases.
This, actually, is thefall: an autumn that becomes unstable, an autumn that also accompanies atmospheric disturbances, A autumn that brings snow to the Alps, even at altitudes under 2000 m, When, associated with atmospheric disturbances, cold air transit.
Nothing unusual, would be part of the climatic average. Well, the long -term mathematical models propose one Trendy line that tries to approach what is the normalcy of the atmospheric time: the normal fall.
This is what emerges at the moment and, as dates, we can give a period ranging from September 20perhaps even a few days earlier, until the end of the month as the first hypothesis, while one accentuation of the possibility that this phenomenon will take place in the first decade of Octoberwhere even this phenomenon It will be highly likely. In this circumstance there would be a significant lowering of the temperature, a thermal drop that will bring out above all to the Northern Italy The temperatures, which will become even rigid in some days.
Al Southern Italy The thermal collapse will make itself felt, but then here most likely there will be new calls of hot air from Nord Africa And the weather will return to being mild for a few days or perhaps even for a few weeks.
Also because We must remember that we have an antagonist in the cold always ready to come and visit uswhich is theAfrican anticyclone.
Antagonist of ocean currents which would be more normal in this period of the year, especially ad Octoberabove all in the first 10 days of the month.
The first days of October which would be those of the astronomical autumn, which will reach the third decade of Septemberwhile I also remember that we are already in the autumn, but the meteorological onewhich started with the first day of September. However, of fall There is no trace, except in some Alpine area, probably, but neither, because if we went to analyze what happens local on the Alpswe would see a summer situation.
The Alps, seen from the plane, appear to be snowfield until the glaciers. The rainfall in these days, in fact, has been snowy only in very high altitude, sometimes not even on glaciers, if not on the highest ones.
In short, The weather trend, however, is towards a degradation of the summer which, during the month of Septemberwe will begin to hear, and this especially in the second part of the montheven if we will have vampires of African heat. My he Northern Italy will begin to feel the arrival of thefallalso because here it is hard to get on the 30 °Cwhich instead happens at the Center-South, as well as in Emilia-Romagnawhich albeit in northern Italy which is favored to have values even above the 30 °C thanks to the wind blowing from the south-west descending fromApenninewhich overheats because it is an adjacent wind, that is, a descending wind. But these are still local weather conditions.
In summary
When will the summer heat that still dominates in many Italian regions really end?
According to projections, high temperatures will continue for several days. Some areas of the Po Valley and of the Center-South Italy they will be able to reach peaks even beyond the 30 °Cwith exceptional tips close to 40 °C. A first more widespread drop in temperature is expected only in the second part of Septembermore likely in the first decade of October.
Will the expected disturbances take fresh immediately or only rains?
The rainy front arriving, generated by the contact between hot air and the waters of the Mediterraneanwill bring intense rains and violent thunderstorms, but it will not be the triggering element of cooling. Paradoxically, this phase is a consequence of the high temperatures.
When will the first real cold period arrive on Italy?
Meteorological simulations indicate as the first hypothesis a sensitive lowering of temperatures from 20 September onwards, with a greater probability of a real change during the first ten days of October. At that time you can see calms even greater than 10 °Csnow on Alps under 2000 meters and rigid days especially at Northern Italy.
Are there differences between the European and American forecast models?
Yes. The European model does not see signs of refresh up toL 20 Septemberwhile the American one anticipates a first fresh air raid in the heart of Mediterranean Sea. In recent years, the American model has often shown greater reliability in long -term trends.
Can we talk about a cold autumn or normal conditions for the period?
Nothing exceptional: fresh air irruptions in September and October are part of typical climatology. What appears probable is greater variability, with exchanges of north-south air masses and therefore with marked thermal changes.
Will Southern Italy warn the same thermal thermal of the North?
Il Southern Italy It will live a lowering of temperatures, but more attenuated. After the fresh phase, here they may return to hot air from Nord Africawhich will keep mild conditions for weeks.
What role will African anticyclone play in the coming months?
L’African anticyclone The main antagonist of the Atlantic currents remains. In the first days of Octobera period that coincides with the beginning of astronomical autumn, could still return to influence time, especially to the center-south, maintaining a warmer climate than normal.
How is the current situation on the Alps?
The Alps They appear snowfield, visible from above to the glaciers. In the last few days the snowfalls have only occurred in the highest altitude, and have not always reached the lower glaciers. At the moment the context remains typically summer.
Credit: The article was drawn up by analyzing the data of the mathematical models Ecmwf and Global Forecast System of the Noaa. (METEOGIORNALE.IT)
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