Reacting to Beijing’s holiday-season travel advisory, Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kei Sato told reporters on 27 January that the government will track the impact on “people-to-people exchanges and economic activities” and continue efforts to stabilise relations. The statement underscores Tokyo’s concern that another plunge in Chinese visitor numbers could derail fragile tourism-sector recovery.
Chinese tourists contributed an estimated ¥1.2 trillion (US$8.1 billion) to Japan’s economy in 2025, but arrivals fell 45 percent year-on-year in December following earlier warnings. Regional governments—from Hokkaido’s ski resorts to Kyushu’s hot-spring towns—are bracing for fresh cancellations just as they had stocked inventory for the lucrative Lunar-New-Year rush.
For travelers caught in the uncertainty, services like VisaHQ can be a lifeline: the agency’s China resource page ( offers real-time visa guidance, document checklists and expedited processing options, helping tourists and business delegations navigate shifting entry rules with minimal disruption.
Japanese retailers reliant on “bakugai” (explosive shopping) by mainland visitors are pivoting to domestic promotions, while duty-free operators at Narita and Kansai airports are shortening opening hours. Inbound-dependent hotels such as Tokyo’s Ginza district properties report occupancy forecasts down 30 percent for the third week of February.
Business-mobility implications run both ways. Japanese firms planning plant inspections in China worry about reciprocal scrutiny, and HR teams are revisiting contingency plans for expatriates who might need emergency repatriation if tensions flare. Trade associations, however, stress that commercial dialogue must continue, pointing to upcoming visits by UK and Azerbaijani leaders to Beijing as signs that diplomatic channels remain open.
Economists at Nomura estimate that if Chinese arrivals drop to 10 percent of 2019 levels during the holiday week, it could shave 0.05 percentage points off Japan’s first-quarter GDP. The tourism agency says it will roll out additional subsidies for domestic travellers if needed.
