The country reached a new record of 315 gigawatts of installed capacity in 2025. The cumulative total output rose to 1.2 terawatts. Non-fossil energy sources overtook thermal generation for the first time.
from pv magazine Global
China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) released its energy sector statistics for 2025 on Wednesday. It shows that China installed 315.07 gigawatts of photovoltaic capacity and 119.33 gigawatts of wind power last year. Both numbers represent new record levels.
By the end of December 2025, China’s cumulative power generation capacity had reached 3.89 terawatts, up 16.1 percent year-on-year. Solar power output rose more than twice as fast, by 35.4 percent to 1.2 terawatts, while wind power output increased by 22.9 percent to 0.64 terawatts. Together, solar and wind energy accounted for 47.3 percent of total installed generation capacity at year-end, according to NEA data.
The numbers underline a structural change in the Chinese electricity mix. Including hydropower and nuclear energy, non-fossil energy sources accounted for 60.4 percent of total installed capacity in 2025. This leaves 39.6 percent for fossil fuels, which marks a historic turning point in the country’s electricity system. The NEA data also shows that large power plants with capacity of 6 megawatts or more achieved an annual average of 3,119 full-load hours, a decrease of 312 hours compared to 2024, reflecting increasing variability and pressure to scale down electricity generation due to the expansion of renewable energy.
40 gigawatts of expansion in December alone
The pace of new installations accelerated sharply toward the end of the year. In December alone, more than 40 gigawatts of photovoltaics were added – an amount that is comparable to the additions of many large national photovoltaics markets throughout the year (according to the current status, almost 16.5 gigawatts were newly installed in Germany in 2025). Industry analysts attributed the increase to commissioning timelines as well as the continued rollout of large-scale wind and photovoltaic clusters in western and northern China.
Despite the record year, most observers expect a decline in new installations in 2026 and attribute this to the high current level, market liberalization of electricity prices and ongoing supply chain adjustments. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) outlined three scenarios in January: a conservative scenario with around 185 gigawatts, a mainstream scenario with 215 to 220 gigawatts and an optimistic scenario with up to 275 gigawatts. The average forecast therefore assumes a decline of around 20 to 25 percent compared to the previous year.
This outlook contrasts with the CPIA’s 2025 projections, when it revised its full-year forecast upward from 215 to 255 gigawatts in February and to 270 to 300 gigawatts in July, following a policy-driven increase in additions in the first half of the year. The NEA’s official data now shows that actual increases still exceeded the upper limit of the CPIA’s revised range.
Other analysts remain divided over the pace of the expected slowdown. The latest baseline forecast from Bloomberg NEF assumes around 273 gigawatts (AC) of new photovoltaic systems in 2026, while several Chinese brokers and trade publications put their key estimates between 200 and 225 gigawatts. Across all scenarios, there is widespread agreement that large-scale projects in desert areas and the development of renewable energy clusters will dominate demand, while distributed energy generation represents the greatest uncertainty due to evolving electricity pricing and tariff mechanisms.
With a cumulative output of now over 1 terawatt, the Chinese photovoltaic market is increasingly characterized by challenges in system integration and less by pure expansion. Grid access, the use of storage and electricity market reforms are expected to play an increasingly important role in determining how quickly new capacity can be added from 2026.
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