Cocaine and synthetic drugs are on the rise. Cannabis remains the most consumed substance. And corruption in courts and prisons weakens judicial independence, in addition to paving the way for organized crime. These are some of the conclusions reached by the third edition of the Global Organized Crime Index 2025 report.
Although the document presents global data from 21 countries, it also mentions Chile and the growth it had in “crime markers.” If in 2021 it started with 4.6, today it rises to 5.48. That leaves it—in the context of the South American countries—as one of those that had the greatest increase.
The above is explained, according to the document, because illegal trade with special taxes predominates in Chile: alcohol, cigarettes and medicines are some of them. Even more worrying is the increase in the human trafficking category.
—When we go to see the measurements regarding criminal actors, we see that the type of criminal actor that is growing the most are foreign actors and this is obviously related to the presence of the Aragua train —explains Felipe Botero, director for the Andean Region of GI-TOC who participated in preparing the figures.
At a general level, the report concludes that today, the world “is at a critical juncture.” The last five years of analysis show that organized crime has reached a turning point. On the one hand, because crimes, in addition to persisting and increasing, are also becoming more complex and violent. At the same time, markets are changing. If before it was heroin, today synthetic drugs are much easier to make and sell.
—This underscores the importance of a whole-of-society approach to addressing organized crime, an approach that mobilizes governments, civil society, international cooperation, and the private sector to generate reinforcing effects and foster systemic resilience,” the documents conclude.
Critical moments
Table of Contents
The third edition of the report is based on a compilation of data from the last five years. Broadly speaking, they state that there are trends that persist: the expansion of drug trafficking, human exploitation and financial crimes, which are becoming increasingly stronger. This last point is key. Particularly because it is intertwined with “macroeconomic transformations in geopolitics, technology, environmental stress and conflict.”
In simple terms, “new forms of crime that are more adaptable, interconnected and difficult to combat” are generated. The World Drug Report estimates that 316 million people used narcotics in 2023. This translates to an increase of 28% in the last decade. In other words, it exceeds the growth of the world population.
On the other hand, the market for illicit substances has mutated. If before it was heroin and marijuana, today cocaine and synthetic drugs are on the rise. By 2025, cocaine will go from 4.52% to 4.89%. Synthetics grew from 4.62% to 5.14%. This latest year-on-year increase is the highest record of any criminal market since the report was created (2021).
—Cocaine and synthetic drugs, although not yet the most common, are rapidly rising toward dominance of global drug markets—they say. Despite this, cannabis continues to be the most consumed substance, it just maintains its standards. It doesn’t go up or down.
Regarding the above, South America is the one that has the greatest global reach when it comes to drug cartels. The connections that exist in this part of the world with other regions facilitate illicit trade.
Chile on the rise
Although Chile is not one of the countries that has the highest crime indicators, it is in the red. From 2023 to 2025 it grew by 0.30%. That is, its score closes at 5.48% (See photo). In other words: Chile started 2021 with a score of 4.6 and to date has already risen more than a full point.
Felipe Botero, director for the Andean Region of GI-TOC, explains that when Chile is compared in the context of South America, it is one of the countries along with Uruguay, Brazil and Ecuador that have grown the most since the last measurement.
—What particularities do we see in the case of Chile? On the one hand, an important growth especially in two indicators, financial crimes and this is very much in line with the global trend, and on the other hand, crimes that have to do with the trade of products that are subject to special taxes. But in addition to this growth, in these two markets we see some that already had high scores and that are also growing by half a point: these are human trafficking.
Human trafficking rose 0.50% and accumulate a total of 6.50 points. It is one of the highest along with arms, cocaine and cannabis trafficking. Subtly lower were human trafficking, extortion, counterfeit products, tax evasion and wildlife crimes.
It is precisely with drugs where the focus must be placed. According to Pablo Zeballos, a Chilean consultant on organized crime and former Carabineros officer, geographically the exit through the Pacific Ocean is one of the most profitable and with the greatest demand. That is, port, land and storage infrastructure should be reinforced.
—Drug trafficking is becoming a duopoly. There is a predominance of cocaine and synthetic drugs. And why is it important for Chile? Because we have an overproduction of cocaine in the three Andean countries that produce it, which is Peru, Colombia and Bolivia,” he points out.
Organized crime and resilience
Regarding “criminal actors”, Chile scores 5.60; rose 0.30%. The item that grew the most was the one referring to groups or mafias. Now, although the categories of “criminal networks” and “foreign actors” did not increase, both are still the highest, with 6.0 and 6.5 points respectively.
Felipe Botero explains that the most influential criminal actors are foreigners, such as the Aragua Train that operates throughout Chile, but mainly in the north and in the Metropolitan region.
This influences and is intertwined with resilience indicators. Chile is at 6.17, which is high. However, it has decreased in the categories of “political leaders and government” and “judicial system and detention.” And at a general level it also dropped because in 2021 it scored 6.42.
Even so, Chile is the second most resilient country for South America. Only Uruguay surpasses it.
—I would conclude by saying that Chile has a privileged position in the South American context. This privileged position, of course, presents challenges because crime in the country has been growing. Because we also know that this crime is being expressed in a violent way and that generates a very important impact on the State. On the other hand, its resilience has some aspects to improve that could help Chile better face the challenge they face in the face of the threat of organized crime —Botero suggests.
The former Carabineros officer, Pablo Zeballos, focuses on the Chinese, Italian and Albanian mafias. According to him, they are going to begin to be the true leaders of crime in South America.
—I would also highlight how criminal actors linked to the State, that is, state actors linked to organized crime, are beginning to strengthen. And as they are also strengthened by the logic of corruption, they begin to weaken the rule of law.
Double failure
Globally, “drug markets are undergoing profound transformations,” and as drug dynamics change, there are greater consequences for public health, crime and violence.
For this reason, the document points out, the Judiciary plays a fundamental role. They are the ones who, through investigation and sentences, can “safeguard the rule of law.”
Likewise, they go hand in hand with prisons, who should dismantle organized crime and prevent its reproduction. An effective prison could even “dismantle criminal leadership structures, hinder operational networks and fulfill a rehabilitative function, facilitating the reintegration of criminals into society.”
But in practice, that doesn’t happen. In fact, this indicator is who consistently underperforms. The item “judicial system and detention” is among the four weakest pillars. Their results are only going down.
—It is especially worrying since it reflects the weakness of an institution essential to maintaining long-term resilience against organized crime —they question.
But there is something worse: corruption. This weakening that they talk about often occurs because officials are corrupted by members of criminal organizations. This generates structural vulnerability in all areas because the problem will never be addressed effectively.
—Corruption, political interference, and selective law enforcement erode judicial independence, weaken prosecutorial capacity, and distort sentencing practices. Prison systems, instead of serving as spaces for disruption and rehabilitation, can become extensions of criminal networks.
In other words, criminals and mafia leaders can obtain privileges that allow them to continue operating from inside prison.
—The result is a double failure: the judiciary and the penitentiary system lose their deterrent capacity and, simultaneously, reinforce the impunity of those who have political protection.
Increased vulnerability
The third edition of the report is critical in mentioning that the world is at a “turning point.” In addition to geopolitical and economic disruptions, technologies are now being strongly added. That introduces new, less visible illicit markets, such as financial and cybercrime.
—Organized crime is not only expanding, but is being radically reorganized, becoming increasingly integrated into licit systems with a speed and sophistication that continues to exceed the response capacity of States.
This criminal ecosystem is enhanced by different factors. Firstly, they point out that the counterfeiting market is more invasive due to technological innovation and “economic disruptions”, such as inflation, inequality and stagnant growth. Second, there is a duopoly in the global drug economy: today they are synthetic and no weather conditions are needed to produce them.
There is also “the growing influence of foreign actors and the private sector that reflects their deepening interconnectedness across borders and the central role of mediators in trafficking dynamics.”
The prognosis is discouraging, but not impossible. Although there is an evolution of crime, actions must be taken now.
—I think one of the most important messages worth highlighting is that since our 2021 edition, global crime measurements have been increasing, while resilience has been decreasing. And this is important because what it shows us is that a gap is widening, since the vulnerability of different people is increasing. And today we know that 82.7% of the world’s population lives in countries that have measures or indicators of high crime —Botero concludes.
