THE ESSENTIAL
- A large study estimates that the number of cases of gastrointestinal cancer worldwide could double by 2050.
- An increase in the incidence of pancreatic cancer and deaths linked to colorectal cancer could be observed.
- Researchers point out that early detection and prevention are the major levers to limit this increase in cases.
Gastrointestinal cancer, which encompasses all cancers of the digestive system, including the esophagus, stomach, liver, pancreas, colon and anus, remains a major challenge for global health. In a new study, researchers from the United States, Thailand and China provided estimates of global gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality, as well as projections of the number of cases and deaths through 2050 to inform cancer control strategies. To do this, they based themselves on GLOBOCAN data dating from 2022.
Gastrointestinal cancers: 9.06 million new cases by 2050
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According to the results, published in the journal Cancerthe global burden of gastrointestinal cancer is expected to reach 9.06 million new cases (+85%) and 6.42 million deaths (+93%) by 2050 compared to 2022. An increase in incidence is expected in both women (+87%) and men (+83%), as is an increase in mortality in both sexes (+97% for women +91% for the male one). “While the Western Pacific region will be most affected in absolute terms, with 3.88 million new cases and 2.79 million deaths, it is in Africa that the relative increase is expected to be the highest, with an increase of 157% in incidence and 160% in mortality. According to the Human Development Index (HDI), the highest increases are expected in low HDI countries (+151% incidence and + 152% deaths) and at average HDI (+112% incidence and +114% deaths)”, can we read in the works.
Colorectal cancer: more deaths in affected patients
Overall, all types of gastrointestinal cancers are expected to increase, particularly pancreatic cancer in terms of incidence (+95%) and colorectal cancer in terms of deaths (+103%). An increase in diagnoses and deaths linked to esophageal and liver cancers could be observed. According to Ju Dong Yang, professor of medicine at Cedars-Sinai and author of the research, up to 70 percent of liver cancers could be prevented through lifestyle changes. “It is an accumulation of fat in the liver, associated with diabetes, obesity, uncontrolled high cholesterol and high blood pressure.” Lifestyle factors (obesity, smoking, alcohol consumption) and insufficient screening also contribute to the risk of colorectal, esophageal, stomach and pancreatic cancers.
“Develop screening programs”
“This rise in cancer rates is expected globally, and considerable efforts must be made to encourage lifestyle changes and develop screening programs to reduce them,” Ju Dong Yang said. Katelyn Atkins, medical director of radiation oncology at Cedars-Sinai, points out that blood biomarkers (such as circulating tumor DNA) improve early detection and enable personalized treatments as well as better prediction of recurrence in colorectal cancer. “Advances in radiation oncology techniques allow us to deliver treatment more precisely and better protect neighboring organs, making treatments more intense and more effective, and therefore safer. There is also an increasing use of radiotherapy as an alternative to radical surgery in cancers of the rectum, esophagus and gastroesophageal tract.”
