Recently, the United States has attacked several boats in the Caribbean Sea that are identified as belonging to drug cartels. Several people have been killed.
Björn Ottosson, senior US researcher at FOI, says the Trump administration is putting enormous pressure on the Maduro regime in Venezuela, which it claims has a role in drug smuggling to the US.
Donald Trump has also pledged a reward of the equivalent of SEK 500 million to whoever has information that can lead to Maduro’s arrest.
Maybe one hopes that the country’s army will carry out some kind of coup, says Björn Ottosson.
– Maduro is not Bin Laden hiding somewhere, on the other hand, this is how you put this pressure on Venezuela. They have to mobilize a lot. It costs an awful lot for Venezuela and the regime to do it with resources they don’t have.
Land targets as the next step
He also says that the importance of the drug problem in the United States should not be underestimated, and that Trump now wants to show action. But he believes it is “very doubtful” if the US would attack Venezuela. In that case, it would probably be about specific places that are connected to the drug trade.
Juan Sebastian Gonzalez was security adviser in charge of Latin America under Democrat Joe Biden. He believes an attack on ground targets in Venezuela could be the next step.
– It either ends with the government backing down and finding a way to declare itself the victor, or continuing to escalate.
“Significant impact operation”
The country has increased its military presence in the region. Juan Sebastian Gonzalez says 10 percent of US naval capability is in the Caribbean right now, which is “far more than what’s needed for counternarcotics.”
The US’s efforts are not about drugs, even if the Trump administration describes it that way, he believes.
– I think many see this as a significant influence operation to destabilize Maduro.
He emphasizes that it is unclear what the US government’s intentions really are. Juan Sebastian Gonzalez believes that the US expects someone in Maduro’s inner circle to try to cash in on the 500 million reward, but that the regime’s cohesion seems to have strengthened recently.
– They need each other to survive.
