In the first three months of the year the Treasury will issue at least 38 billion BTPs with maturities of up to 7 years. This is how 2026 begins for Italian public debt. Twelve months during which Via XX Settembre expects to return to the market with new products aimed at small individual savers and does not exclude either reopening the chapters of BTPs with very long maturities, the so-called Matusalem, with a duration of up to 50 years, or placing bonds denominated in dollars, if the exchange rate conditions with the euro make the operation convenient. The year that has just begun will be characterized by a certain crowding on the sovereign bond market. For example, Germany will have to place a large amount of Bund to finance defense spending. In this context, the Italian Treasury comes to the meeting with investors on the strength of a year in which yields have fallen and the rating has obtained promotions from all agencies.
THE EXPECTATIONS
The spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds is now permanently around 66 points, the lowest since September 2008, the fateful month of the bankruptcy of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers, triggering the global financial crisis. The horizon of the differential between Italian and German 10-year yields now looks towards 60 and even 50 basis points, as some economists, cited by Ansa, hypothesize. The signal of confidence in the country’s prospects. A solid government, which has risen to third place in terms of duration among Republican executives, and prudent management of public finances which should lead to an exit from the European procedure for excessive deficit have contributed to reshaping Italy’s image in the eyes of the markets. Added to this are a series of reforms made that improve competitiveness and the expected momentum of the last year of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (some of them, however, will be able to survive after next summer). The clearest result was the drop in yields (with consequent savings on the cost of debt and therefore on interest expenditure).
Taking all these elements together, Rome expects total gross issues of medium and long-term securities between 350 and 365 billion until December, substantially in line with 2025, the figure for which has been influenced by a series of BTP repurchase operations expiring this year, the amount of which is quite substantial. In fact, the securities in circulation that will mature in the next few months amount to approximately 256 billion euros. The ready go-ahead is represented by short-term BTPs with maturities of three, five and seven years, with a minimum amount of 9 billion for the first two securities and 10 billion for the other two. The Mef also reserves the right to place further new securities. In February last year, for example, Via XX Settembre launched the Btp Più, one of the evolutions of the Btp Valore family, products reserved for retail savers which this year too will represent one of the pillars of the Treasury strategy. «In light of the excellent feedback», the Treasury technicians explain in the debt guidelines, the ministry «will continue to propose these instruments with the aim of consolidating the involvement of this audience of investors». Another product on which the Mef can count is the Btp Green, with which the placement season opened a year ago, both by providing liquidity to the securities already in circulation and by considering placing a new edition of the green bond through syndicate, of which the special regulatory framework that regulates this bond dedicated to financing interventions in transport, research and environmental protection has recently been updated. On longer maturities, the Treasury expects gross issues in line with those of 2025, taking into account that approximately 31.6 billion will mature in the 15 and 30 year segments.
THE CALENDAR
In the first part of the year, further tranches of a series of bonds with maturities in 2029, 2031 and 2036 and coupons of 2.35%, 2.85% and 3.45%, respectively, may be offered. A first medium and long-term communication is scheduled for Thursday 8th January with the auction scheduled for the 13th (a second is scheduled for the end of the month, the 29th). However, the first Bot auction is scheduled for Wednesday 11th, which will open the Italian debt season.
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