BRICS Expansion and Japan’s Latent Leadership in a Torn Indo-Pacific
Four Southeast Asian nations—Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand—have recently made a significant geopolitical shift by applying for BRICS membership. This decision signals a potential realignment in the region, sparking discussions about its implications for the Western-led international order and the rise of a China-led alternative.
The Concerned and the Unconcerned
Opinions on this move are divided into two camps: those who see it as a warning sign and those who interpret it as a strategic maneuver. Concerned observers argue that the increased interest in BRICS could indicate a weakening commitment to the Western-led global order and a growing appeal of China’s influence. Unconvinced第三方s view this as typical hedging behavior for ASEAN countries navigating a complex geopolitical landscape.
Limited Choices and the Need for Alternatives
Many discussions surrounding these decisions overlook the limited options available to ASEAN countries between Western-led institutions and BRICS. Critics often assume that the region must choose between these two poles. However, a more nuanced perspective suggests that a Japan-led coalition represents a viable alternative. Such a coalition could support the existing international rules-based system while avoiding the need to align with major powers.
The Impact of Rising Tensions
The rise in tensions between major powers has left ASEAN countries in a precarious position. China and the United States are increasingly seen as less reliable partners, making it difficult for ASEAN to remain neutral. The region’s increasingly esoteric multi-alignment strategy, exemplified by Indonesia’s application to both the OECD and BRICS, reflects the need for a broader approach to maintain neutrality.
Uncertainty in the Trump Era
The return of former US President Donald Trump to office has added another layer of complexity to regional relations. Trump’s rhetoric against BRICS and his提议 to impose tariffs on member nations signal a period of increased uncertainty. This uncertainty underscores the need for a more stable and neutral partner in the form of Japan.
Japan as a Third Option
Japan has long been recognized as a reliable partner by ASEAN countries, yet its influence has been limited. Japan’s leadership in finalizing the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2018 was a significant milestone in its regional role. Its commitment to the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy and initiatives like the Asia Zero Emission Community align with ASEAN’s priorities, indicating a strong foundation for a more active Japanese role.
Building a Coalition
To capitalize on this foundation, Japan should consider forming an open-invite coalition with clear objectives to support and defend the international rules-based system. This coalition would offer countries like ASEAN a neutral platform to collaborate on regional and global issues, promoting peace and stability without taking sides in major power rivalries.
The Strength of Japan’s Leadership
Japan’s leadership credentials are strong. It has played a pivotal role in establishing regional institutions such as the Asian Development Bank and has championed initiatives like the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy. These efforts have garnered widespread support from countries in the region and demonstrate Japan’s ability to lead.
Alignment with ASEAN’s Goals
ASEAN’s alignment with Japan’s strategies is clear. Both support the principles of free trade, the protection of international law, and the role of institutions like the International Court of Justice and the World Trade Organization. This shared vision makes Japan a natural leader for a coalition bringing like-minded countries together.
Overcoming Obstacles
Despite its strengths, Japan faces challenges in building such a coalition. Trust in existing platforms like the G7 and OECD has declined, making it necessary to explore new avenues. By creating a coalition similar to BRICS, Japan could provide a much-needed alternative, reinforcing its influence and promoting the principles of international law.
The Future of Regional Stability
The future of regional stability in the Indo-Pacific depends on the ability of countries to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics. Japan’s latent leadership holds the key to offering a stable alternative to the tensions caused by major power competition. By building a coalition that supports the international rules-based system, Japan can play a crucial role in upholding global peace and stability.
Bryan Tan Jia Yang is Programme Associate in the Office of the Secretary General at the ASEAN-Japan Centre. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the positions of any affiliated organizations.
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