Nothing remains of the famous “350 million pounds a week” slogan that, according to Boris Johnson, was going to strengthen British public health after Brexit. The reality is very different: andhe United Kingdom would be losing around 250 million pounds a day, about 290 million euros, due to the economic impact of its departure from the European Union. This is the conclusion of a report prepared by the House of Commons Library at the request of the Liberal Democratic Party, which warns that Brexit has opened a fiscal hole close to 90 billion pounds annually, that is, more than 100 billion euros.
According to recent research by the National Bureau of Economic Research, also adopted by the Stanford University, The agreements promoted by governments after the 2016 referendum would have reduced the potential size of the British economy by between 6% and 8%. This estimate is considerably more serious than the 4% calculation presented by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the semi-public body that oversees the country’s fiscal forecasts.
The House of Commons study maintains that, had this slowdown in GDP growth not occurred, the British Treasury would have collected about 90 billion pounds additional in 2024/25 if the highest impact, 8% of GDP, is taken as a reference. Even the most moderate projection, of 6%, indicates a decrease in income around 65 billion pounds per year. The National Bureau of Economic Research, which analyzes almost a decade of data since the referendum, also points to notable declines in investment, from 12% to 18%, employment, from 3% to 4%, and productivity, another 3% or 4%.
The report attributes these setbacks to a cocktail of prolonged uncertainty, weakened demand and increasingly inefficient resource allocation, effects linked to a long, turbulent exit process full of unexpected adjustments. The initial forecasts, which calculated a damage of 4%, would have been correct for the first five years, but fell short of the horizon of a decade.
The analysis also concludes that the average Briton is today several thousand pounds poorer as a direct consequence of Brexit and the withdrawal agreement signed by the then Prime Minister. Johnson at the end of 2020. The estimated loss of GDP per capita ranges between 2,700 and 3,700 pounds.
Ed Daveyleader of the Liberal Democrats, summed up the situation like this: the campaign that promised savings of 350 million pounds per week “It has ended up costing us 250 million a day in 2025.” According to him, this burden explains the current record of fiscal pressure, the increase in bills and the persistent crisis in the cost of living. Davey criticizes the Labor Party for recognizing the economic damage of Brexit but refusing to take action, and argues that the country should at least return to the European customs union. Your parliamentary group has registered a bill in this regard, which will be voted on in the House on December 9.
Public perception has also changed dramatically: in the last two years, support for Brexit has plummeted in the polls. Today it is considered a central factor in current economic problems, including rising food prices and the general deterioration of purchasing power. An analysis published in 2024 estimated that the UK lost about £27 billion in trade in the first two years after leaving. Key sectors, such as financial services and construction, have recorded significant drops in employment.
Bloomberg estimates that the London economy alone would have stopped generating around 30 billion pounds as a result of Brexit. Although some British financial firms have moved part of their operations to the European continent, they have done so to a lesser extent than was anticipated in the early years.
The “reboot” promoted by Starmer
After the Labor victory in July 2024, London and Brussels undertook a rapprochement aimed at rebuilding the bilateral relationship. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer christening this process as a ‘reboot’. The summit held in London last May, the first joint summit since Brexit, served to seal a new strategic partnership and renew the commitment to collaboration.
Both parties have reached a principle of agreement on security and defense, endowed with some 150,000 million euros, the terms of which must be validated before November 30. At the same time, conversations remain open on a youth mobility program and on a sanitary and phytosanitary pact that facilitates trade, particularly in meat and live animals.