Cryptocurrency investors remain cautious as they recalibrate their expectations for a rate cut – and therefore their appetite for risk. BTC takes up the USD $ 109K after publication of the Fed FED inflation index.
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- BTC is taking up the USD $ 109,000 after publication of the Fed FED inflation index.
- The PCE showed a slight monthly increase of 0.3% in August at an annual rate of 2.7%.
- Economic data makes the market emphasize its expectation of a rate cut.
- The PCE is the favorite inflation index of the Fed and could influence its rate decision in October.
- Cryptocurrency investors show caution in the short term, with long -term optimism.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) showed a shy recovery towards USD $ 109,600 this Friday, after felling on Thursday to a minimum of almost five weeks of USD $ 108,776, according to data from Co ringecko.
This movement occurs in a context of macroeconomic uncertainty, promoted by the latest data on the United States Personal Consumer Expenses Index (PCE), which were aligned with the expectations of economists.
The PCE report, published today by the US Department of Commerce, showed a monthly increase of 0.3% in August, raising the annual general inflation rate to 2.7%, compared to 2.6% in July, as reported CNN. For its part, the underlying index, which excludes food and energy, advanced 0.2% monthly, being stable in 2.9% per year, as in July.
Meanwhile, the expenditure of US consumers also showed strength, with an increase of 0.6% in August, exceeding the expectations of an increase of 0.5%, according to FACTSET estimates, he reported CNN. This robust expense suggests a resilient economy, but also feeds concerns about continuous inflationary pressures.
PCE reading —he Favorite Federal Reserve Index to measure inflation and check how much its annual 2% target rate is approaching— It has generated caution in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
Recalculating the expectation of a rate cut
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The cryptocurrency market, sensitive to macroeconomic indicators, has faced bearish pressure in recent weeks, as the appetite due to the risk among investors cools, influenced by economic data that increases the expectations that the Federal Reserve of the United States.
Last week, the FED reduced interest rates at 25 basic points for the first time in the year, and is now in a diatribe on future cuts; With a meeting scheduled in October for an upcoming decision.
Inflation data arrive a day after the Commerce Department reviewed the GDP data of the second quarter, reporting an annualized growth of 3.8%, higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%and the initial of 3%.
With these data into account, the markets are strongly betting on a rate cut in October, although the enthusiasm has decreased since last week. In particular, the chances of another 25 basic points cut in October are about 87% from 91% last Friday, according to the tool FedWatch of cme. Meanwhile, the chances that there are no changes before November have been readjusted after increasing from 8% to 17% on Thursday, to about 12.3% today.
The president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, hinted on Tuesday that bank officials are not in a hurry for an upcoming cut, during statements in which he reiterated on the potential impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on sticky inflation. However, before this, the policy formulators already seemed to coincide in at least one additional cut in the year.
Bitcoin shows recovery signals
The cryptocurrency market remains in limbo in the middle of the robust economic landscape, but whose destination still looks uncertain with persistent inflation; At least until a price break is confirmed.
Bitcoinwhich descended yesterday to the USD $ 108,000 area, is showing slight recovery signals this Friday. Its price is $ 109,647 at the time of writing this article, even 0.7% lower in 24 hoursaccording to data from Co ringecko.
This correction extended to the funds quoted in the stock market (ETF) of Bitcoin in cash in the US Socal.
The derivative market also seems to have been calmed after the massive wave of liquidations for more than USD $ 1 billion on Thursday, which predicts less prices volatility. According to data from Coinglassin the last 24 hours, the liquidations totaled USD $ 848 million, with USD $ 706 million in long positions (bullish bets).
Other main cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH) —With a price of USD $ 3,977 at the close of this edition—, Tron (TRX) y Chainlink (Link) registered minimal daily profits of less than 1%, reflecting an attempt recovery in the market.
What follows for the crypto market?
While in the immediate period nothing is written in stone, and any direction —up or down— It seems still possible, there are observers who are still optimistic in the long term. Bitcoin It is about to close September with a loss of 2.4%, in line with its historic bearish streak this month, before giving way to a traditionally bullish October.
“Long -term flows and seasonality still favor the case of medium -term cryptocurrencies, although the market is fragile”, Shared Brn’s head of research, Timothy Misir, to The Block by email.
“Confirmation will come when ETF flows stabilize and Bitcoin recovers the USD $ 113,500 – $ 116,000 with volume. Until then, prioritize capital preservation over the aggressive search for increases“He added.
The cryptocurrency market remains in a state of uncertainty, with Bitcoin showing stabilization signals, but without a clear breakdown of prices. Analysts warn that any significant movement, whether bullish or bassist, will depend on the next decisions of the Federal Reserve and incoming economic data.
Article written with the help of AI, edited by Diariobitcoin
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