On December 15th, the Bitcoin price slipped below the $87,000 mark again. The trigger was less a broad sell-off than the behavior of a specific group of Bitcoin holders, which represents an already familiar pattern: some large investors – known in crypto jargon as “whales” – are reducing their positions, which has noticeable consequences for short-term price developments. At the same time, smaller market participants are using the setback as a buying opportunity.
Order flow analysis data from Hyblock Capital clearly shows this divergence between the different market groups[1]: Retail investors with wallet sizes up to $10,000 have accumulated a net Bitcoin equivalent of around $169 million in the past few days, specifically since December 3rd. So-called mid-sized holders – wallets between $1,000 and $100,000 – also expanded their spot positions and bought for around $305 million.
The behavior of the “whales” was completely different: wallets with volumes between $100,000 and $10 million recorded a negative cumulative volume delta of around $2.78 billion. The whales’ selling activity clearly exceeded the purchasing power of smaller market participants – a classic liquidity imbalance that increased downward pressure.
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Onchain stress with no clear reversal signal
However, what is crucial for understanding the current Bitcoin development is not only the size of individual positions, but also how long Bitcoin owners have been holding their holdings: According to blockchain analyst Axel Adler Jr., the so-called Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of short-term holders – measured as a seven-day moving average – has fallen below the 1 mark and is currently trading at around 0.99.[2]In simple terms, this means: Coins that have been held for less than 155 days are, on average, sold at a loss. The value of 155 days is not a random value here, but statistically marks the threshold between short- and long-term holders.
Historically, SOPR values just below 1 often occur in advanced phases of sell-offs – i.e. where selling pressure presupposes losses have already been realized. However, this alone does not indicate bottom formation. Only if the SOPR returns above the 1 mark would signal that new demand is absorbing the selling pressure – and things could go up again on a sustained basis.
One bright spot: Institutional demand is outpacing new supply
At the same time, however, there are increasing structural rays of hope – particularly at the institutional level. New data[3] of the quantitative crypto fund Capriole Investments show that for the first time in three days, institutional investors are buying more Bitcoin than are new to the market through mining.
This is the first time since the beginning of November that the markets have seen a phase in which institutional demand alone leads to a net decline in the amount of available Bitcoin. The volume remains manageable: institutional demand is currently around 13 percent higher than the amount mined daily. Nevertheless, this development marks a clear change in mood.
A breakdown of Bitcoin purchases versus newly created Bitcoin: The graph below shows an excess (red) or shortage (green) of newly created Bitcoin compared to those purchased. (Credit: Capriole Investments)
Capriole founder Charles Edwards classifies the recent weeks as a period of high stress for many market participants – including for companies that hold Bitcoin as part of their treasury strategy. The focus is particularly on Strategy, which continues to accumulate Bitcoin despite falling prices and weaker stock performance.
Outlook: Why 2026 could be crucial
Looking ahead, many market observers and convinced Bitcoin investors are focusing less on the coming weeks and more on the year 2026. The structural liquidity available to the market is likely to be crucial. This includes not only Bitcoin ETFs in the US, but also the increasing access of institutional investors via regulated products, digital asset treasuries and long-term allocation strategies.
If institutional demand continues to stabilize – especially in phases in which it exceeds the newly emerging supply – the balance of power on the market could shift permanently. Short-term volatility and further setbacks would not be ruled out, but they would increasingly meet a foundation that is more strongly supported by long-term capital.
It remains to be seen when this effect will develop emphatically. One thing is clear, however: the current decline to $87,000 tells less the story of a falling market – than that of a market that is reorganizing itself.
Author Darius Moukhtarzade is a research strategist at crypto ETP issuer 21shares.
For more information on current crypto developments, see 21shares’ current Research Insights.
[1] https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-slips-below-86k-as-2-78b-whale-selling-overwhelms-dip-buyers
[2] https://axeladlerjr.com/short-term-holder-capitulation-sopr-signals-local-stress/
[3] https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-institutional-buys-flip-new-supply-for-first-time-in-6-weeks