Bitcoin Price Crash: Risk of 2018 Repeat?

Bitcoin is down 22.54 percent this quarter. This is the largest quarterly decline since 2018. There are less than ten days left in the year. It is therefore now unlikely that Bitcoin will reach the analysts’ bullish price targets.

Market experts are reassessing their expectations for the next few weeks. They explain how Bitcoin could end the year and what 2026 could bring for the coin.

After peaking in October, Bitcoin faced market headwinds. According to data from Coinglass, the coin ended the past two months in the red.

In October the price fell by 3.69 percent, then in November it fell more sharply by 17.67 percent. Bitcoin has also fallen by 2.31 percent so far this month.

Bitcoin has had a hard time moving much above $90,000. The coin is now trading at prices that are lower than at the beginning of the year. In addition, demand is growing less strongly, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are slowing down and so-called smart money sales increase the risk of further declines for the Bitcoin price.

Selling pressure has continued in recent days. Bitcoin has fallen another 1.8 percent in the past 24 hours. At the time of the article the price was $87,183.

BTC) Price Performance” loading=”lazy” height=”381″ width=”960″ class=”yf-lglytj loader”/>

Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin “continues to be stuck in a narrow and declining price range.” The difficult macroeconomic environment is making it difficult for Bitcoin to gain momentum below $90,000 as liquidity decreases and risk appetite decreases.

He added that the bulls have defended the support at $85,000. Despite this, they were unable to overcome the strong selling pressure that began the year at around $93,000.

Options market data reflects the stalemate between market participants. Put options are concentrated around $85,000 while call options are between $100,000 and $120,000.

According to Youssef, the upcoming options expiration date, additional data on the US government shutdown and a liquidity injection of $6.8 billion from the Fed could cause more fluctuations in the short term. Nevertheless, the direction of the market remains unclear.

“Unless Bitcoin clearly clears resistance at $93,000 or loses support at $85,000, BTC is likely to remain range-bound and enter the year end volatile,” he said.

Youssef explained that despite a decline of over 30 percent since the October highs, US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings are down less than 5 percent. This shows that institutional investors are largely sticking with their positions despite the current bear market.

He also said that the greatest selling pressure comes from retail investors, particularly those who use leverage or trade short-term. Youssef sees the $85,000 mark as an important level to watch as 2025 ends.

If the price falls below this zone, it could increase the chances of a stronger correction towards the demand zone at $73,000.

“A break of the support zone could also force institutional investors to make a decision if the price falls towards their average buying price at around $80,000. Reaching $94,000 would be necessary for the market to turn bullish again and move towards previous highs,” said Youssef.

Meanwhile, VALR CEO Farzam Ehsani explained that the end of the year is one of the most difficult times for crypto in recent years. He sees the reasons as being the typical weakness at the end of the year, very high prices over a long period of time and a renewed shift by investors into safe instruments such as US government bonds.

Ehsani also said that liquidity in the market remains limited. At the same time, more and more institutional participants are putting themselves on hold and relying on capital preservation.

Ehsani also emphasized that the current correction shows the fragility of the market. Because the market remains vulnerable to price drops due to panic. According to Ehsani, there are two logical explanations for this.

First, large participants in the market – funds, banks or even governments – could be preparing for larger purchases.

“In this case, the price decline may be artificial. After a temporary weakness, the price is likely to rise again.”

Alternatively, the market could be overcrowded. The weaker US currency, driven by rising government debt, has weakened demand for crypto as a risky asset.

“This trend is further exacerbated by the US Federal Reserve’s policy. In this case, it could take over a year for the crypto market to recover,” said Ehsani.

The manager also predicted that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high as early as the first half of 2026. The price could then rise back into the $100,000 to $120,000 range by the second quarter.

“A new historical price high could happen as early as the first half of 2026. The price is expected to be back in the $100,000 to $120,000 range in the second quarter. In the past, the first few months of the year have not been particularly dynamic: traders often choose a wait-and-see approach as markets look for new opportunities and growth,” he said.

The CEO of VALR emphasized that what will be crucial next year will be the level of institutional use, regulations in the US and worldwide, and the economic situation of the largest economies.

The original article Bitcoin price facing weakest quarter since 2018 – is there a risk of a crash now? by Kamina Bashir can be found at de.beincrypto.com