Key points:
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It is unlikely that the maximum of $ 124,500 of Bitcoin is the top of the cycle, since the 30 peak indicators remain neutral.
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Recent losses show that new investors are capitulating, while experienced or flushed holders.
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Staying above the 20 -week exponential mobile average (EMA) keeps Bitcoin’s trajectory open around $ 150,000.
Bitcoin’s decline (BTC) from its historical maximums is feeding the concern about whether the market has already reached its peak by 2025. But the so -called “maximum of $ 124,000” is nothing more than “noise”, according to the analyst Merlijn the trader.
The 30/30 indicators point to Bitcoin has more upholsters
Table of Contents
In a Tuesday publication, Merijn stressed that none of the 30 most followed peak indicators of Bitcoin has given alert signs so far.
Historically, the maximums of the Bitcoin cycle have coincided with multiple “overheating” signals in well -known Ochain tools.
For example, the multiple of Puelll, which is triggered when the miners obtain unsustainably high income, is located in only 1.39, well below the danger zone of 2.2 observed before the previous prices peaks.
Similarly, the MVRV Z-SCORE, which compares the price of Bitcoin with its real capital tickets, remains in neutral territory, instead of at the end of overheating that marked the previous maximums.
Experienced BTC holders do not flinch
On-chain data support the upward vision, showing a classic in progress.
The newest investors in Bitcoin, those who have been holding BTC for less than a month, have unrealized average losses of around -3.50% and are now selling, according to data shared by the analyst Crazzyblockk.
On the contrary, the broader group of short -term Holders (STH), which have made their positions between one and six months, remains profitable, with an unrelated gain of +4.50%.
“This is a bullish structural evolution,” writes Crazzyblockk, adds:
“The market is purging the weakest, transferring their BTC to Holders with a lower cost base and a greater conviction […] This shake, although painful for the latest important buyers, is precisely the type of event that builds a solid support base for the next significant upward movement. ”
70 million dollars in long btc positions liquidated
Ochain Amr Taha analyst is even more optimistic about an upcoming recovery, citing the recent liquidation of 70 million dollars in long -signed long positions after the fall of the BTC price below $ 111,000 in Binance.
The open interest (OI) fell significantly after liquidation. The accumulated volume of Binance collapsed in around 1,000 million dollars, indicating an aggressive domain of the sale and capitulation of late buyers.
The following liquidity group is between $ 117,000 and $ 118,000, which could act as a magnet for prices if BTC is recovered in the next few days. Below, the support is limited to around $ 105,000.
“With the elimination of overpaid buyers and the restoration of open interest, the market is structurally healthier,” writes Taha, adds:
“The absence of a contraction of short positions suggests a latent bullish potential, especially if BTC recovers key levels and triggers the coverage of short positions.”
Can the price of Bitcoin continue to fall up to $ 100,000?
In the weekly graphic, Bitcoin’s recoil is less like a market cap and more to a classic correction of the upward market.
Since the beginning of 2023, BTC has repeatedly registered strong falls in the range of 20-30% before resuming its upward trend.
The last 12% drop is relatively superficial and continues to be above the 20 -week exponential mobile average (20 -week EMA; the green wave) about 108,000 dollars, a level that has acted as dynamic support throughout the rise.
A rebound from the 20 -week EMA could put Bitcoin again on the way to challenge its historical maximum above $ 125,500, while maintaining the door open to a broader rebound to $ 150,000, if not more, at the end of 2025.
On the contrary, a fall below the EMA of 20 weeks could lead to a deeper correction towards the EMA of 50 weeks (the red wave) around $ 95,300. This wave support has historically marked the local minimums of Bitcoin during the previous setbacks of the upward market.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Clarification: the information and/or opinions issued in this article do not necessarily represent the views or the Cointelegraph editorial line. The information presented here should not be taken as a financial council or investment recommendation. Any investment and commercial movement imply risks and it is each person’s responsibility to do their proper investigation before making an investment decision.
