An avalanche of Bitcoin contracts are expiring on the Deribit options market: tension and pessimism still prevails.
Several Bitcoin options contracts expired this morning, worth a combined $12.8 billion. This is one of the most important events of the year for fans of the derivatives market on Deribit, with many traders who will have to reposition themselves following maturation.
The moment is not exactly the most prosperous for Bitcoin and for the crypto world, fresh from a long phase of distribution and consolidation, while even on the US stock front there does not seem to be a particularly favorable atmosphere. Let’s try to understand if and how, in the next few days, $BTC will be able to emerge from this phase of uncertainty.
Deribit Options on Bitcoin: The Most Charged Expiration of 2026
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Today’s one – at least for now – looks like the Biggest Deribit options expiration of the year in terms of open interest, in which a mountain of contracts is concentrated Bitcoin (BTC). More precisely we talk about $8.2 billion in calls e $4.5 billion in putswith a large portion that expires OTM, i.e. without intrinsic value and therefore without the possibility of being exercised.
Of the calls, only 4.28% are in the ITM zone, i.e. in conditions in which buyers generate a profit. For puts the share is slightly higher at 28.7%, but overall the picture remains unbalanced towards positions that will not lead to effective exercise.
Looking at the distribution of OI for the next dates, we immediately notice that today, Friday 27 March, appears to be the deadline with the highest number of open positions compared to the entire calendar. Today’s share is also higher than that recorded during the Deribit deadline of January 30th, day they were there $8.8 billion on the plate.
Bitcoin options: the distribution of open interest on the various strikes
By observing how the various volumes are distributed across all the strike prices of today’s expiry, we immediately understand that many Bitcoin options traders preferred to remain cautious at this stage. There is in fact a very extensive distribution of the OI, with many bets extremely far from the current market price, probably the result of strategy “short vol” or low-cost directional betting.
What is surprising, however, is the presence of approx 10,000 Bitcoin call contracts and zone $75.000a level that already at the beginning of March promised to be interesting given the way in which the question came back to be heard. Same level which later proved to be a strong resistance for the cryptocurrency, which has repeatedly tried to break out with a breakout, but all attempts failed.
More recently we also told you how that area would have been difficult to pass in the short term, and which indeed could have become one bull trap per Bitcoin. It is no coincidence that the “Max Pain Price” of today’s expiration, i.e. the level where option buyers earn the most, is located at $74,000, far from current prices.
Volatility under control
An element that is worth focusing on concerns the way in which the Bitcoin DVOLi.e. the index that measures the implied volatility of options on Bitcoin, has performed in recent weeks. From its performance we can understand what investors’ expectations are, whether we will move forcefully (in any direction) or whether a compression phase will prevail.
After the collapse on February 5th and the subsequent rebound on February 6th, a context in which Bitcoin came close to $60,000 and then quickly recovered ground, the DVOL began to stabilize, a sign of a less tension on the market.
In any case, at these levels the implied volatility on Bitcoin still remains relatively highat a score of 82.5 in relation to the IV Percentile metric, which is a higher level than most values recorded in the last year.
This suggests that investor expectations – as confirmed by “Variance Premium Index” – still remain higher than the movements actually recorded in the short term, despite showing signs of cooling. On longer horizons in fact, the gap tends to narrow by offering more favorable conditions for those aiming to purchase options (the premium to be paid is cheap), and less convenient for those who sell.
Bitcoin options and investor repositioning: what to expect from the next few days?
At this point, with Bitcoin options expiring today, there are several billion dollars that could choose to re-enter the market with new positions. It is obviously not easy to understand where the capital will be placed, whether on bullish, bearish, hedging strategies, or oriented towards the sale of volatility.
We know that since the low of February 5th, the sentiment of options traders has progressively improved stretched outwith what skew delta 25 which recovered in the following weeks, signaling a lower demand for protection on the put side.
It’s there though still some agitation on the market, especially on shorter maturities, where data moves more rapidly and more rapidly than those on 30-day horizons. Overall, the market is rebuilding itself after the bad collapse of recent months, and operators are slowly starting to bet with more optimism.
Having said that, for the moment one prevails momentum still nervousmade more unstable by a continuously changing macro context, in particular due to the tensions linked to the war in the Middle East and the unpredictable announcements by President Donald Trump.
Is April a bullish month for Bitcoin? As long as conditions remain these, it will be difficult to think of a real restart in the short term. It would be more sensible to wait for some confirmation from the chart, perhaps the break of $75,000, a level which remains fundamental for price action and where many futures liquidations are concentrated.
