Bitcoin‘s onchain activity is heating up again, but analysts warn that the recovery could slow without renewed interest from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Michael Saylor’s Strategy.
According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s realized cap – a measure of the total value of all coins based on the price of their last move – has increased by more than $8 billion in the past week, bringing the total to more than $1.1 trillion. The increase signals increased investor participation and new capital inflows, although overall market sentiment remains cautious following the recent $19 billion sell-off in the crypto sector.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, said that while institutional channels such as ETFs and corporate treasuries have been the main drivers of demand, both have slowed purchases. «Demand is now driven mainly by ETFs and Strategy, both of which have recently reduced purchases. If these two channels resume, market momentum will probably return too.” he wrote his X.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners continue to increase production capacity, pushing the network’s hash rate higher, a development Ju described as a “long-term bullish signal.” Companies like American Bitcoin, linked to the Trump family, have reportedly purchased thousands of new ASIC machines worth more than $300 million to expand operations.
Despite the $8 billion inflow, investor confidence remains subdued. Sentiment indicators still remain in “fear” territory, reflecting persistent caution despite recent macroeconomic developments, including renewed confidence in U.S.-China trade relations.
According to Bitfinex analysts, a new wave of flows into ETFs and possible monetary easing by the Federal Reserve could radically change the tone of the market. Their baseline scenario predicts that Bitcoin could reach as high as $140,000 by November, if ETF investments reach between $10 billion and $15 billion, coupled with two rate cuts and the usual seasonal strength of the fourth quarter.
For now, however, Bitcoin’s recovery appears limited, supported by onchain inflows and the expansion of miners, but still waiting for the return of large institutional buyers to rekindle the next bullish phase.
