The price of Bitcoin has been losing momentum since October. BTC peaked above $125,000, and fell below the psychological threshold of $100,000. What if Bitcoin had already entered a bear market similar to 2018 or 2022? In this article, we explore the reasons which could make one think that the king of cryptos is back in the bear market. Here we go!
Do previous cycles provide clues that should not be missed?
Since its creation, the price of Bitcoin has alternated between bull market and bear market periods. However, the king of cryptocurrencies is in bull market since the end of 2022. In fact, it has progressed by more than 700 % in a few years. However, if Bitcoin continues to behave in the same way as in the previous two cycles, it could be at the very beginning of a new bear market :
The latest top has been found 537 days after halving. And the previous market tops of 2017 and 2021 were marked respectively 528 days and 548 days after halving. If the king of cryptocurrencies continues to be punctuated by halving, a long bearish phase could arrive in the coming months.
Despite a favorable context, Bitcoin does not take the opportunity to explode
Investors clearly panicked when trade tensions have resumed between the United States and China. Ultimately, more fear than harm, since the two great powers managed to find common ground. But Bitcoin failed to take advantage of this good news to regainATH at $126,000.
For its part, the Fed is easing monetary policy. She also comes from lower its rates by 25 basis points. While this is great news for risky assets, Powell spoiled the party by explaining that there was no certainty about the next meeting. Concretely, the president of the Fed decided to leave investors in uncertaintyand the cryptocurrency market did not really appreciate it. Furthermore, the announcement of the fine you shutdown is another positive element coming from the United States. The end of the budgetary paralysis could have had a beneficial effect on cryptos, but the reaction is relatively disappointing.
Bitcoin is therefore evolving in a favorable context. Trade tensions have subsided, the Fed has cut rates, and the shutdown is over. Even if there are no longer any real obstacles on the road to Bitcoin, the price remains fragile. If no positive element manages to wake up Bitcoin, this could indicate that it is already in a bear market. Or, BTC takes the opportunity to take a break after several years of growth. In any case, some experts are still optimistic for 2026.
