For the second consecutive year, the adoption of the state budget will not be a long quiet river. If the unprecedented scenario experienced in 2024 for the adoption of the current budget (voted in an initial finance law at the beginning of 2025) is not yet written, all the ingredients are there to see the story are repeated.
In theory, by December 31, the next government must present the budget and then have it voted in Parliament to guarantee the proper functioning of the State and administrations from 1is January. Otherwise, public authorities would be unable to pay civil servants, pay the bills, take tax … This situation has never occurred in the history of thee Republic.
In addition to the proper functioning of the State, behind the budget hide macroeconomic issues: reassuring European partners and containing the concern of the financial markets vis-à-vis the country’s debt. After the fall of the Bayrou government, three scenarios are emerging for the adoption of the 2026 budget.
If the next government manages to complete the budget within the deadlines
The government which will succeed that of François Bayrou has the possibility of respecting the legal calendar defined by the organic law relating to the laws of public finances (LOLF, which is the “financial constitution” of the State). It is still necessary to be named fairly quickly. This hypothetical government would have until October 7 to submit its finance bill to the National Assembly … after having submitted it for validation to the High Council for Public Finance and the Council of State.
More “The experience of last year showed that the first Tuesday in October is not a“ guillotine ”date, Storms Aurélien Baudu, professor of public law at the University of Lille, and his colleague from the University of Paris Cité, Xavier Cabannes. There is a small room for maneuver, the main thing being That the Parliament has its seventy constitutional days to examine the project and vote it, and finally that the Constitutional Council, if it was seized, has time to do its work to control the constitutionality of the text adopted before December 30. »»
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