The snow cover in Austria is decreasing significantly on average, both in its thickness and in its duration. At the same time, a massive decline in Austria’s glacier mass is expected by the middle of the century. Both developments have a noticeable impact on the water balance and require precautionary measures. The Ministry of the Environment’s interdisciplinary research project “Water in Climate Change – a Study of the Effects” has come to this preliminary interim result. Research teams from TU Vienna, GeoSphere Austria, the University of Graz and BOKU Vienna are working together on the project.
Environment Minister Norbert Totschnig: “According to the results, the visible changes in glaciers and snow will continue. The study helps us to understand what consequences this has for our water balance and where we can take targeted, sensible measures. The goal is to ensure the supply of the valuable resource water in the long term.” The study shows a significant decrease in snow: On average, the duration of the snow cover in Austria is shortened by around one day per year, and the average snow depth is reduced by around 1 cm per year. This becomes particularly visible in a longer time comparison: between 1960 and 2020, the duration of snow cover at low altitudes has already decreased by around 60 percent, and the average snow depth by around 70 percent.
“The consequences of climate change are particularly noticeable in the melting of our glaciers and the reduction in snow. This means that further action is required to ensure the water supply in Austria for the future,” says Totschnig. “We have therefore been taking targeted measures for many years to ensure that every Austrian household can continue to be supplied with sufficient drinking water in the future. The study reinforces this precautionary strategy and creates additional planning security for water management, infrastructure and regions.”
The amount of snow is halved
The decline in snow cover will continue in the future as temperatures rise. This is shown by a snow model that was developed as part of the study. It calculates the change in snow depth depending on the development of temperatures and precipitation. From this it can be deduced that the average snow depth at lower altitudes (0-500 meters) will decrease by around half compared to today by the middle of the century. For medium altitudes between 500 and 1,000 meters it is reduced by around 35 percent. These calculations by 2050 are based on a likely temperature increase of one degree.
In unfavorable scenarios, an increase of 3 degrees is expected by the year 2100. In this case, snow will be an exception at lower altitudes; At medium altitudes the snow cover will then decrease by 60 to 75 percent compared to today. Only above 2000 to 2500 meters are the changes significantly smaller.
“Our models show that we will increasingly have to say goodbye to snow, especially at low altitudes; at medium altitudes the snow will decrease significantly,” says Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Schöner from the Institute for Geography and Spatial Research at the University of Graz, who is researching the topic of snow and ice for the “Water in Climate Change” study. “The decline in snow has a direct effect on the water balance: if the snow melts earlier, this changes the seasonal rhythm. Runoff maximums move forward in time; in summer there tends to be less water available.” The altitude around the zero degree limit is particularly sensitive, where it is decided whether precipitation falls as snow or rain. This limit has been moving upwards by 120 to 140 meters every ten years since the 1980s.
Decline in glacier mass
The study also confirms the rapid melting of local glaciers: by 2050, between 70 and 80 percent of the glacier mass will be lost compared to 2024, with the range between the two calculation results resulting from the different possible climate scenarios. What is striking is that the melting process has already accelerated in the past five years and is progressing more quickly than researchers had assumed based on previous modeling. How quickly this decline continues depends on the further global warming path; Based on current knowledge, it can no longer be stopped completely.
Schöner: “Glaciers have an important storage function because they retain water and release it in warmer and drier times. This contribution decreases significantly, which will have an impact particularly in high alpine catchment areas.” Measuring networks with around 100 stations throughout Austria are used for the measurements on which the study’s projections for snow and ice are based. Models that link temperature and precipitation information are used for future projections. For glaciers, the mass balance is recorded directly in the field – using measuring rods in the ice, among other things.
Planning security through evidence
The interim results will be incorporated into the research project “Water in Climate Change – a study on the effects”, which is being carried out on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Agriculture, Forestry, Climate and Environmental Protection, Regions and Water Management (BMLUK) under the direction of the TU Vienna. The climate-related changes in snow and ice are the second projection made as part of the study. The first trends for shifting precipitation into the cold season were published at the end of January. Both projections make it clear that water availability will become more uneven in the future.
It is already clear that precaution is becoming more important. If natural storage areas such as snow and ice become less important, adaptation measures can cushion regional bottlenecks: for example, through greater networking of supply systems; through adapted control of reservoirs in order to make the best possible use of the water resource – for example for energy supply; or by identifying alternative water sources for high mountain infrastructure that has previously relied on glacier water.
The study “Water in climate change – a study of the effects” will provide further current information in the coming months, such as evaporation, groundwater development in different regions, high and low water scenarios, and water temperatures. The final report will be published at the end of 2026 and will contain detailed forecasts for Austria up to 2100. Further information can be found at wasseraktiv.at/wasser-im-klimawandel
