ATP Finals Turin 2025: Sinner’s Federer/Djokovic Potential

It seems extravagant to say this before a semi-final of the Masters, but what awaits Jannik Sinner on Saturday at the Inalpi Arena seems a priori to be a formality for him. Alex de Minaur, his last obstacle on the way to the final and possibly a reunion with Carlos Alcaraz, is his favorite victim on the circuit. 12 matches, 12 victories, 27 sets won, 2 lost. Of course, the Italian respects his opponents and his sport too much to think like that, especially since last month, in Vienna, the “Demon” hung on like rarely, only losing in three sets (6-3, 4-6, 6-2).

Let’s say all the same, without disrespect to anyone, that the probability of finding the world number 2 in the final on Sunday in front of his audience appears relatively high. Casually, it would be a small page of history, an extremely rare achievement in men’s tennis. Already a finalist in the four Grand Slam tournaments this year since he won the title in Australia and Wimbledon and lost in the final at Roland Garros and the US Open, he can therefore complete his 2025 collection at the ATP Finals.

By reaching the final in New York, Sinner had already entered little-explored territory. In the Open era, only three champions had managed to play all the major finals in the same season. Rod Laver, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. The three Musketeers therefore became four in 2025. But if we add the Masters, there are only two left. The big end-of-year event was in fact created in 1970, a year after Rod Laver’s (second) Grand Slam.

91.6% victories in two years

So only Federer and Djokovic remain. The Swiss and the Serbian share perfect symmetry in this area. They have managed to play the four major finals of the circuit three times. It was in 2006, 2007 and 2009 for “Rodgeur”, and in 2015, 2021 and 2023 for “Nole”. Both then reached the final of the ATP “Finals” two times out of three. In 2006 and 2007 for Federer, in 2015 and 2023 for Djokovic. For Jannik Sinner, this would therefore be a great first.

“Knowing who hangs on to Sinner-Alcaraz is the story of these Masters”

Video credit: Eurosport

Of course, for these people, only victory matters. If the Trentino native were to stall in the final, which has already happened to him four times this year (he was also beaten by Alcaraz in Rome and in Cincinnati, where, due to illness, he retired), he would probably not experience it in the best possible way. But Sinner’s consistency for two full years now remains remarkable, exceptional even, and deserves to be underlined. He began his crazy cavalcade in Vienna in the fall of 2023.

From Vienna 2023 to Turin 2025, he won 91.6% of his matches (142 victories in 155 matches). When Sinner is not at his best, he goes to the final, to put it another way. Perhaps he will be able to detect a happy omen in the following statistic: the two times that Federer and Djokovic were in the final of the five biggest tournaments on the calendar (the four Grand Slams and the Masters), they ended with a victory. The last time was in 2023, when Djokovic took the measure of… Sinner in the Masters final.