Following a 38-19 victory over Northern Arizona in the opening week, ASU’s chances of reaching the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive year appear slim, according to projections from The Athletic.

The Sun Devils are currently ranked No. 23, making them the fourth-highest big 12 team behind Utah (14), Texas Tech (T-17), and Iowa State (T-20), based on an algorithm considering win-loss record, strength of resume, and strength of record.

Currently, Texas Tech is the only Big 12 team projected to make the 12-team playoff as the No.11 seed.

TCU is the sole Big 12 team yet to commence their 2025 season, facing Bill Belichick and the North Carolina Tar Heels on Labor Day.

Early Assessment of ASU’s College Football Playoff Prospects

The Athletic has analyzed each CFP contender’s postseason odds, dividing them into categories: making the playoff, winning the conference, earning a first-round bye, and winning the championship.

“proving projections are just projections.”

ASU is projected to finish with an 8-4 record in 2025. The projections give them a 20% chance of making the playoff, 13% chance to win the Big 12, a 2% chance to earn a first-round bye, and less than 1% chance to win the championship.

Despite being ranked No. 11 in the preseason AP poll, ASU was picked 16th out of 16 teams in the Big 12 last year, demonstrating the unpredictable nature of preseason projections.

Projected 2025 College Football Playoff Bracket (Week 1)

1-seed (first-round bye): Ohio State

2-seed (first-round bye): Penn State

3-seed (first-round bye): Notre Dame

4-seed (first-round bye): Georgia

5-seed Oregon vs. 12-seed Tulane

6-seed LSU vs. 11-seed Texas Tech

7-seed Clemson vs. 10-seed Auburn